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Costs, trade levels hit Deutsche Boerse -analysts

Published 08/05/2009, 06:12 AM
Updated 08/05/2009, 06:15 AM
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* Analyst sees higher costs weighing on bottom line

* Trade volumes have slowed more than expected

* Trading volumes not seen rebounding soon

* Boerse's shares fall more than 6 percent

FRANKFURT, Aug 5 (Reuters) - Shares in German stock and derivatives market operator Deutsche Boerse fell more than 6 percent on Wednesday after the exchange published disappointing second-quarter figures on Tuesday night.

Analysts centred on trading volume pressure and higher-than-expected costs as primary reasons for the disappointing results.

The group, whose top rivals include NYSE Euronext and CME Group as well as Britain's London Stock Exchange, posted earnings before interest, tax and amortisation (EBITA) of 248.8 million euros ($356.9 million) for the quarter to end-June, down from 375.1 million euros a year earlier.

At 0855 GMT, shares in Deutsche Boerse had fallen 6.3 percent, making them the top decliners among German large caps and lagging a 1 percent drop on the index of the world's leading exchanges

"The second-quarter net result of 165 million euros ($237.4 million) came in significantly below our (195 million euro) as well as consensus estimates (183 million euros, collected by Reuters). The negative deviation results from margin pressure in various businesses," said WestLB analyst Christoph Bossmann.

Bossman pointed to lower-than-expected revenues on the Boerse's Xetra electronic order-matching system, which is primarily used for cash equities trading.

"The pressure on margins on Xetra and for clearing was higher than estimated and could not offset the gradual quarterly improvements in trading volumes (+4 percent quarter-on-quarter) and the number of trades (+7 percent quarter-on-quarter) as we had estimated," Bossman said.

Analyst said revenues in the Boerse's two other main business areas, its derivatives unit Eurex/ISE and its settlement arm Clearstream, were also lower than expected.

COSTS ALSO HIT BOTTOM LINE

Citibank analyst Daniel Garrod pointed to higher-than-expected costs working against the bottom line.

"Costs have increased 8 percent quarter-on-quarter to 322.5 million euros," Garrod said in a note to clients.

Garrod said some increase was to be expected due to increased stock option expenses and increased investment spending.

He said, however, the quarterly costs were 4 percent higher than both Citigroup and consensus forecasts.

While Detusche Boerse reiterated its cost guidance of 1.28 billion euros for 2009, with 620 million already reflected in the first half of the year, it would at best only slightly beat its cost target, Garrod said.

Analysts said Deutsche Boerse was unlikely to see a quick turn around in trade volumes in upcoming months.

"Third-quarter volumes are off to a slow start, partly reflecting summer seasonality and we expect momentum to return in September, although prior year comparables will remain tough," wrote Banc of America-Merrill Lynch analyst Martin Price in a note to clients.

WestLB's Bossmann said that for his brokerage to have a more positive stance on Deutsche Boerse -- they currently rate it with a 'neutral' recommendation -- trading volumes on Eurex and Xetra have to show signs of improvements.

He said there was currently no sign of a substantial rise in trading volumes.

Credit Suisse analyst Rupak Ghose said that while Boerse was currently under pressure, it was still a good long-term bet.

He pointed to strong fundamentals, which would be robust during a time of improving capital markets.

For a breakdown of unit sales and EBITA, please click on (Reporting by Tyler Sitte)

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