(Bloomberg) -- The U.S. continued to slash estimates for Ukraine’s grain exports as sea routes were curbed following Russia’s invasion.
Ukraine’s corn exports will drop by another 4.5 million tons to 23 million tons and wheat exports by 1 million tons, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s closely watched World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, or WASDE. World wheat stockpiles were revised down to 278.4 million tons, less than expected by a Bloomberg survey.
Russia’s war in Ukraine is upending trade flows out of the critical Black Sea breadbasket region, prompting warnings of food shortages as crucial supplies of wheat, corn and cooking oils are at risk. Food prices are surging at the fastest clip ever and worsening world hunger.
“There’s an increased possibility of the conflict getting out of hand again. Peace is not coming any time soon,” said Jack Scoville, analyst at Price Futures Group Inc. in Chicago.
Grain and oilseed futures have jumped to near record highs and also caused a spike in prices of farm necessities like fertilizer and fuel. Big growing regions like the U.S. and Brazil are under pressure to produce ample crops, though weather woes and inflation in both countries are clouding the season’s outlook.
Most-active corn futures in Chicago rose 1.5% to $7.6175 a bushel as of 11:44 a.m. local time. Benchmark wheat was up 2.7% to $10.5325, and soybeans also rose.
Sidelined Supplies
To see how significantly the war is upending crop flows from Ukraine, its corn stockpiles tell the story. The war has left the country saddled with huge amounts of grain that it’s largely unable to move. With its ports shut, Ukraine is working to ramp up exports via rail, but the flows remain well below normal seaborne trade.
The chaos in the Black Sea so far hasn’t led to a jump in U.S. grain exports, though there were signs of fresh corn demand this week when China scooped up 1.1 million tons, the Asian nation’s biggest such buy in almost a year.
Besides the worsening war that’s affecting Black Sea exports, the report was bearish, according to Naomi Blohm, senior market adviser at Total Farm Marketing in Wisconsin, with no changes to U.S. corn reserves, bigger wheat supplies and a smaller-than-expected cut in U.S. soybeans stockpiles.
Soy Switch (NYSE:SWCH)
Shifts in the soybean markets are also underway. The report raised U.S. exports while lowering shipments out of Brazil, as well as Ukraine and Russia.
South American soybean crops are down a combined 33 million tons below initial estimates from November, which marks a record loss for the region after a strong drought caused by La Nina weather patterns. With that cut in production, the smaller South American exports will drive more demand to the U.S. for summer and early fall.
Bigger U.S. exports will likely to shrink end-season U.S. soybean stockpiles by 8.8%, the largest decline in the month of April since 2012. It’s an unusual move because supplies in America are typically well known at this time of year.
(Adds details about shifts in soybean markets in final three paragraphs.)
©2022 Bloomberg L.P.