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S&P Global forecasts trade growth to outpace GDP by 2028

EditorEmilio Ghigini
Published 02/21/2024, 04:23 AM
SPGI
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LONDON - S&P Global, a provider of market intelligence and analytics, released its "Look Forward" research series, offering insights into the evolution of global supply chains up to 2030. The series highlights the challenges and opportunities that supply chains face amid geopolitical tensions, climate change threats, and technological advancements.

The report suggests that global trade is expected to grow at a compound rate of 3.3% through to 2028, surpassing the projected GDP growth of 2.6%. This growth is anticipated to be driven by Southeast Asia and emerging markets, which are becoming key players in global supply chain expansion.

S&P Global's research indicates a shift in supply chain policies toward national security concerns, with rising protectionism and resource-guarding likely to contribute to inflationary pressures. The study also notes that higher financing costs are discouraging investment in supply chain resilience, leading businesses to adopt strategies like reshoring and technology enhancements to mitigate risks and enhance profitability.

According to the report, Southeast Asia and Mexico are becoming attractive destinations for foreign direct investment as companies consider reshoring. However, the disparity in workforce growth between developed and developing economies could disadvantage industrialized market supply chains, with politics expected to constrain cross-border labor mobility.

The container shipping industry, responsible for transporting 45% of global trade by value, faces challenges in financing its decarbonization efforts. The report identifies the cost burden as a significant obstacle to the industry's environmental goals.

Edouard Tavernier, President of S&P Global Mobility, emphasized the strategic importance of supply chains, stating that the latest edition of "Look Forward" combines S&P Global's research to spotlight the themes shaping supply chains, equipping decision-makers with perspectives to maintain a competitive edge.

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This release is based on a press release statement from S&P Global and provides a factual summary of the company's latest research findings on global supply chains. For further insights, S&P Global encourages interested parties to access the full report on their website.

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.

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