Breaking News
Investing Pro 0
Free Webinar - The Role of Psychology in Trading - Thursday, December 8, 2022 | 04:00PM EST Enroll Now

Marketmind: Mixed inflation signals

Economy Oct 05, 2022 04:06PM ET
Saved. See Saved Items.
This article has already been saved in your Saved Items
 
© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: Investors stand in front of an electronic board showing stock information on the first trading day after the week-long Lunar New Year holiday at a brokerage house in Shanghai, China, February 15, 2016. REUTERS/Aly Song
 
US500
+0.47%
Add to/Remove from Watchlist
Add to Watchlist
Add Position

Position added successfully to:

Please name your holdings portfolio
 
LCO
-1.37%
Add to/Remove from Watchlist
Add to Watchlist
Add Position

Position added successfully to:

Please name your holdings portfolio
 

(Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever

As the U.S. inflation debate intensifies, the signals are getting murkier.

For investors, this makes markets more skittish and day-to- day moves harder to predict, and makes Fed forecasting even more difficult than it already is.

On Wednesday, the headline U.S. services ISM purchasing managers index reading for September was surprisingly strong, declining far less than expected to 56.7 from 56.9. ADP employment figures for September were also stronger than expected.

On the other hand, the ISM prices paid index fell to 68.7, the lowest since January last year. And Tuesday's "JOLTS" jobs data show job openings fell in August at the fastest pace in nearly 2-1/2 years.

Oil prices spiked higher on Wednesday after OPEC+ announced a whopping 2 million barrels a day production cut, yet Brent's year-on-year rise - which factors into inflation forecasting models - is 'only' 13%.

Graphic: Brent oil - futures and year-on-year change - https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/mopanxyoava/OIL.png

Also this week, U.S. breakeven inflation rates on inflation-linked bonds, from two-years maturities out to 20 years, have slid as low as 2.15% - close to the Fed's 2% inflation goal - while the University of Michigan's consumer inflation expectations have fallen too.

Another four Fed officials will be on the tapes on Thursday, hopefully shedding some much-needed light on the inflation debate. For now, it seems like investors are itching for the Fed to pivot, but are not fully confident one would be merited.

Wall Street clawed back opening losses on Wednesday despite the spike in Treasury yields to keep its solid start to the quarter on track. The S&P 500's surge of 5.7% was its best start to a new quarter in decades.

Key developments that could provide more direction to markets on Thursday:

India services PMI (September)

Australia trade balance (August)

Philippines unemployment (August)

Euro zone retail sales (August)

Fed's Mester, Cook, Evans and Waller speak

IMF's Georgieva speaks ahead of IMF/World Bank meetings

Marketmind: Mixed inflation signals
 

Related Articles

Add a Comment

Comment Guidelines

We encourage you to use comments to engage with other users, share your perspective and ask questions of authors and each other. However, in order to maintain the high level of discourse we’ve all come to value and expect, please keep the following criteria in mind:  

  •            Enrich the conversation, don’t trash it.

  •           Stay focused and on track. Only post material that’s relevant to the topic being discussed. 

  •           Be respectful. Even negative opinions can be framed positively and diplomatically. Avoid profanity, slander or personal attacks directed at an author or another user. Racism, sexism and other forms of discrimination will not be tolerated.

  • Use standard writing style. Include punctuation and upper and lower cases. Comments that are written in all caps and contain excessive use of symbols will be removed.
  • NOTE: Spam and/or promotional messages and comments containing links will be removed. Phone numbers, email addresses, links to personal or business websites, Skype/Telegram/WhatsApp etc. addresses (including links to groups) will also be removed; self-promotional material or business-related solicitations or PR (ie, contact me for signals/advice etc.), and/or any other comment that contains personal contact specifcs or advertising will be removed as well. In addition, any of the above-mentioned violations may result in suspension of your account.
  • Doxxing. We do not allow any sharing of private or personal contact or other information about any individual or organization. This will result in immediate suspension of the commentor and his or her account.
  • Don’t monopolize the conversation. We appreciate passion and conviction, but we also strongly believe in giving everyone a chance to air their point of view. Therefore, in addition to civil interaction, we expect commenters to offer their opinions succinctly and thoughtfully, but not so repeatedly that others are annoyed or offended. If we receive complaints about individuals who take over a thread or forum, we reserve the right to ban them from the site, without recourse.
  • Only English comments will be allowed.

Perpetrators of spam or abuse will be deleted from the site and prohibited from future registration at Investing.com’s discretion.

Write your thoughts here
 
Are you sure you want to delete this chart?
 
Post
Post also to:
 
Replace the attached chart with a new chart ?
1000
Your ability to comment is currently suspended due to negative user reports. Your status will be reviewed by our moderators.
Please wait a minute before you try to comment again.
Thanks for your comment. Please note that all comments are pending until approved by our moderators. It may therefore take some time before it appears on our website.
Comments (1)
Stephen Fa
Stephen Fa Oct 05, 2022 4:36PM ET
Saved. See Saved Items.
This comment has already been saved in your Saved Items
Most data is noise or lagging except Core PCE. US grocery prices up 14% YoY.
 
Are you sure you want to delete this chart?
 
Post
 
Replace the attached chart with a new chart ?
1000
Your ability to comment is currently suspended due to negative user reports. Your status will be reviewed by our moderators.
Please wait a minute before you try to comment again.
Add Chart to Comment
Confirm Block

Are you sure you want to block %USER_NAME%?

By doing so, you and %USER_NAME% will not be able to see any of each other's Investing.com's posts.

%USER_NAME% was successfully added to your Block List

Since you’ve just unblocked this person, you must wait 48 hours before renewing the block.

Report this comment

I feel that this comment is:

Comment flagged

Thank You!

Your report has been sent to our moderators for review
Continue with Google
or
Sign up with Email