Get 40% Off
💰 Buffett reveals a $6.7B stake in Chubb. Copy the full portfolio for FREE with InvestingPro’s Stock Ideas toolCopy Portfolio

Major central banks linger in uneasy calm in April

Published 05/03/2024, 05:48 AM
Updated 05/03/2024, 05:50 AM
© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: U.S. Federal Reserve Board Chairman Jerome Powell listens during his re-nominations hearing of the Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee on Capitol Hill,  in Washington, U.S., January 11, 2022. Brendan Smialowski/Pool via REUTERS

By Karin Strohecker and Sumanta Sen

LONDON (Reuters) - Interest rates at major central banks remained static in April as the prospect of higher-for-longer U.S. Federal Reserve rates exerted some pressure on policymakers, especially in emerging markets, where Indonesia delivered a surprise hike.

All four of the central banks overseeing the 10 most heavily traded currencies that held meetings in April - the Bank of Japan, the Bank of Canada, the European Central Bank and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand - kept benchmark lending rates unchanged. Policy makers in Switzerland, Sweden, Australia, Norway and Britain did not hold rate setting meetings.

The Fed, whose rate setting meeting straddled April and May, also left rates unchanged when its decision was published on Wednesday.

U.S. data, pointing to strong growth but also worrisome inflation pressures, cemented a divergence between the world's top central bank and its G10 peers in April.

"The inflation downtrend is alive but unstable, persuading central banks to wait longer and cut key rates more slowly," said Daniel Bergvall, head of forecasting at SEB.

"This is now creating different playing fields for major central banks."

Money markets show traders see a high chance that the ECB will start cutting rates in June, but the first full quarter percentage point rate reduction for the Fed is now only priced in for November, according to LSEG data.

The prospect of higher-for-longer U.S. rates also shaped policy making in emerging economies - which had been ahead of developed peers in both the recent tightening and the easing cycle.

3rd party Ad. Not an offer or recommendation by Investing.com. See disclosure here or remove ads .

The stand out in April, across the Reuters sample of 18 central banks in developing economies, was a surprise interest rate hike by Indonesia - the first since October - and a bid to shore up the rupiah currency which fell to four-year lows against the dollar.

Meanwhile, Hungary, Chile and Colombia delivered a total of 175 bps between them. Nine other central banks in developing markets that held rate setting meetings kept benchmark rates unchanged.

"For me, the key driver for EM performance this year is a global one, which is the Fed," said Sergei Strigo, co-head of emerging markets fixed income at Amundi Asset Management.

"The repricing of interest rate cuts has been very significant as the market is now pricing in barely one cut by the end of the year, and very late this year."

The year-to-date tally of rate hikes across emerging markets stood at 775 bps - nearly all of which were delivered by Turkey. This compares to 850 bps of cuts.

Latest comments

Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.
© 2007-2024 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.