By Kantaro Komiya
TOKYO (Reuters) - Japan's exports growth likely slowed in October, snapping seven-months of double-digit expansion due to dwindling car shipments, a Reuters poll showed on Friday.
The data is expected to highlight risks the export-reliant economy faces as prolonged supply constraints, rising raw material prices and higher import costs from a weak yen squeeze corporate profits.
Trade data will likely show exports increased 9.9% in October from a year earlier, gaining for the eighth straight month but slowing from a 13.0% rise in September, according to analysts polled by Reuters.
"Conspicuous weakness in exports...reflected a rapid decrease in car shipments due to production cuts, forced by semiconductors and other parts' shortage," said Kenta Maruyama, economist at Mitsubishi UFJ (NYSE:MUFG) Research and Consulting, adding exports will recover by early 2022 when carmakers' production constraints ease.
Imports likely rose 31.9% in October from a year earlier after gaining 38.6% in the previous month, resulting in a trade deficit for the third straight month, the poll showed.
The finance ministry will announce the trade data at 8:50 a.m. on Nov. 17 (2350 GMT, Nov. 16).
Japan's core consumer prices likely rose 0.1% in October from a year earlier, the poll showed, the same pace of increase from September.
It will mark a contrast to wholesale inflation, which hit a 40-year high of 8.0% in October due to surging commodity prices, in a sign companies still struggle to pass on higher costs to consumers.
The consumer price data is due at 8:30 a.m. on Nov. 19 (2330GMT, Nov. 18).
"Unlike in Europe and the United States, there's no gush of pent-up demand, and recovery pace of consumption remains modest" in Japan, Takeshi Minami, chief economist at Norinchukin Research Institute said.
The poll also showed core machinery orders, a leading indicator of capital spending, likely gained 1.8% month-on-month in September, following a 2.4% drop in August. The data is due at 8:50 a.m. on Nov. 17 (2350GMT, Nov. 16).
($1 = 114.2500 yen)