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Factbox-Wall Street sees gray skies ahead for equities as Fed tightens policy

Economy May 24, 2022 07:11AM ET
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© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: A Wall Street sign is pictured outside the New York Stock Exchange amid the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic in the Manhattan borough of New York City, New York, U.S., April 16, 2021. REUTERS/Carlo Allegri
 
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(Reuters) - With inflation in the United States running at levels not seen in four decades, market participants worry the Federal Reserve has fallen far behind the curve and will need to move aggressively to bring down the prices, which might end up tipping the economy over into a recession.

These concerns have led to a rout in U.S. equities in recent months, and prompted banks to roll out bearish forecasts. [.N]

Here are some estimates from major banks on the possibility of a recession in the United States:

Old

Bank Commentary on New year-end PT

recession price target

for S&P 500

Goldman Estimate a 35% 4,300 4,900

Sachs chance of a

recession in

U.S. in next two

years

Barclays (LON:BARC) Plc Risks to S&P 500 4,500* 4,800

"remain firmly

stacked to the

downside" given

numerous

negative

near-term

catalysts

Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC) Expects mild 4,200-4,400 4,500-4,700

U.S. recession

at the end of

2022, early

2023; also cuts

year-end 2022

GDP growth

target to 1.5%

from 2.2%.

Morgan Says there is a 3,400*

Stanley 25% probability

for a recession

in next 12

months

Bank of Sees recession 4,500 4,600

America Corp risks as "low

for now but

elevated for

2023"

Credit Believes there As low as

Suisse is a high 3,350 in

recession risk bear-market

for U.S. in the scenario

second half of

2023 and for

Europe this year

JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM) Says equity 4,900* 5,050

Chase & Co markets pricing

in too much

recession risk;

Advocates

risk-taking in

U.S. and Euro

area equity

markets

HSBC Expects a severe 4,450 4,900

Holdings PLC slowdown in

global growth

momentum

in Q2 and Q3

Deutsche Sees no 4,750 5,250

Bank AG recession

imminently, but

warns a

prolonged market

sell-off risks

sliding into a

self-fulfilling

recession

Source: Research notes from banks, *media reports

Factbox-Wall Street sees gray skies ahead for equities as Fed tightens policy
 

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Comments (1)
Alan Rice
Alan Rice May 24, 2022 1:35PM ET
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The "gray" is "the silver lining ".
 
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