Get Premium Data for Cyber Monday: Up to 55% Off InvestingProCLAIM SALE

ADB forecasts Developing Asia growth at 4.9% in 2024, says risks persist

Published 04/10/2024, 08:02 PM
Updated 04/10/2024, 08:05 PM
© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: A general view of the construction site for housing buildings in Hong Kong, China October 24, 2023. REUTERS/Tyrone Siu/File Photo

MANILA (Reuters) - Developing Asia's growth this year is expected to be slightly stronger than previously forecast as healthy domestic demand in many economies offsets the property-driven slowdown in China, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) said on Thursday.   

The ADB nudged up its 2024 growth forecast for Developing Asia to 4.9% from 4.8% projected in December, but warned of persistent challenges such as rising geopolitical tensions, including in the Middle East, that could disrupt supply chains and reignite inflation. 

The Manila-based lender's 2024 growth forecast was slightly weaker than the region's 5.0% growth in 2023. Growth for 2025 was also forecast at 4.9%.   

"Growth in developing Asia will remain robust this year, in spite of uncertainty in the external environment," ADB Chief Economist Albert Park said in the Asian Development Outlook report. 

"The end of interest-rate hiking cycles in most economies as well as continued recovery in goods exports from an upturn in the semiconductor cycle will support growth," Park said. 

China remains a weight on the regional growth outlook as a protracted property crisis and other challenges keep the world's No.2 economy from mounting a strong economic revival, the ADB said.

ADB Principal Economist John Beirne, in a briefing ahead of the report's release, said Wednesday's cut by Fitch of its outlook on China's sovereign credit rating to negative was concerning for investor sentiment.

"It can have additional problems that are already apparent in the property sector, and certainly it's not helpful when we consider local government debts and sustainability of debt and cost of sovereign borrowing," Beirne said.

The ADB forecast China would grow 4.8% in 2024. That is higher than its 4.5% estimate made in December, but slower than growth of 5.2% in 2023. 

It expects the Chinese economy to lose more steam next year, with growth seen slowing to 4.5%, "driven by the weak property market and amplified by fading domestic consumption growth after last year's reopening", the ADB said. 

The ADB forecast regional inflation would slow to 3.2% in 2024 from 3.3% in 2023, and ease further to 3.0% in 2025.

GDP GROWTH 2022 2023 2024 2024 2024 2025

    SEPT DEC APR APR

Caucasus and 5.2 5.3 4.7 4.6 4.3 5.0

Central Asia

     

East Asia 2.9 4.7 4.2 4.2 4.5 4.2

China 3.0 5.2 4.5 4.5 4.8 4.5

     

South Asia 6.6 6.4 6.0 6.0 6.3 6.6

India 7.0 7.6 6.7 6.7 7.0 7.2

     

Southeast 5.7 4.1 4.8 4.7 4.6 4.7

Asia

Indonesia 5.3 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0

Malaysia 8.7 3.7 4.9 4.6 4.5 4.6

Myanmar 2.4 0.8 3.2 n/a 1.2 2.2

Philippines 7.6 5.6 6.2 6.2 6.0 6.2

Singapore 3.8 1.1 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.6

Thailand 2.5 1.9 3.7 3.3 2.6 3.0

Vietnam 8.0 5.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.2

     

The Pacific 7.9 3.5 2.9 2.9 3.3 4.0

     

Developing 4.3 5.0 4.8 4.8 4.9 4.9

Asia

     

INFLATION   

         

Caucasus and 12.9 10.5 8.0 8.4 7.9 7.0

Central Asia

     

East Asia 2.3 0.6 2.1 2.1 1.3 1.6

China 2.0 0.2 2.0 2.0 1.1 1.5

     

South Asia 8.0 8.4 6.6 6.7 7.0 5.8

India 6.7 5.5 4.2 4.2 4.6 4.5

     

Southeast 5.3 4.1 3.3 3.5 3.2 3.0

Asia

Indonesia 4.1 3.7 3.0 3.0 2.8 2.8

Malaysia 3.4 2.5 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.6

Myanmar 27.2 22.0 8.2 n/a 15.5 10.2

Philippines 5.8 6.0 4.0 4.0 3.8 3.4

Singapore 6.1 4.8 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.2

Thailand 6.1 1.2 2.3 2.3 1.0 1.5

Vietnam 3.2 3.3 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0

The Pacific 5.2 3.0 4.5 4.5 4.3 4.1

© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: A general view of the construction site for housing buildings in Hong Kong, China October 24, 2023. REUTERS/Tyrone Siu/File Photo

Developing 4.4 3.3 3.5 3.6 3.2 3.0

Asia

Latest comments

Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.
© 2007-2024 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.