Historically, the month of October has played a pivotal role in Bitcoin's price action, with the cryptocurrency seeing an average price increase of 17% during this month. As we step into October 2023, the crypto community is keenly observing whether this trend will continue.
Historical data, excluding the early volatile years of Bitcoin, shows a higher average price increase of around 21% during pre-halving years. Given that 2023 is a pre-halving year, if the same price change occurs, Bitcoin could reach between $32,000 and $33,000 in October.
In 13 years of Bitcoin's existence, nine Octobers have seen price increases. This makes another bullish October seem quite plausible. However, this year's September broke its known bearish tendencies with Bitcoin's price seeing a 5% increase - a deviation not observed in over seven years. This anomaly raises questions about whether October's price action could also diverge from the historical pattern.
During pre-halving years, Bitcoin's price typically follows a predictable pattern with five to six months of price decreases. However, 2023 has so far been an outlier with only three red months observed. To see the usual six months of price decreases, every remaining month in the calendar year would need to show a reduction.
A comparative perspective can be gained by examining Bitcoin's price movements in Q4 of 2019, which showed significant retracements in Bitcoin's price. It decreased by 20% from the beginning of October until the end of the year. If similar price movements occur this year, it could lead to Bitcoin dropping below $22,000.
Bitcoin's price movements also serve as an indicator for the broader cryptocurrency market. A bearish trend in Bitcoin could potentially lead to a market-wide downturn, causing an even larger downturn for Altcoins and coins with low market capitalization.
While October is usually bullish, the anomalies witnessed in 2023 should prompt a more cautious approach to expectations during October. The absence of a bearish September provokes questions about the likelihood of experiencing a bullish October.
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