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Oil eases 1%, reversing rally, on profit taking, interest rate worries

Published 09/27/2023, 08:16 PM
Updated 09/28/2023, 03:33 PM
© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: An aerial view shows an oil factory of Idemitsu Kosan Co. in Ichihara, east of Tokyo, Japan November 12, 2021, in this photo taken by Kyodo. Picture taken on November 12, 2021.  Mandatory credit Kyodo/via REUTERS/File Photo

By Scott DiSavino

NEW YORK (Reuters) -Oil futures eased about 1% on Thursday, as traders took profits after prices soared to 10-month highs, and some worried that high interest rates may weigh on oil demand.

On its second to last day as the front-month, Brent futures for November delivery fell $1.17 or 1.2%, to settle at $95.38 a barrel. Brent November futures expire on Friday.

Brent December futures (LCOc2) fell about 1.3% to settle at $93.10 per barrel.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) fell $1.97, or 2.1%, to settle at $91.71 per barrel.

Earlier, scarce supply and inventory supplies lifted the Brent front-month hit $97.69, its highest since November 2022. WTI rose to its highest since August 2022 at $95.03.

"Oil was ripe for a pullback. After coming a few dollars short of the $100 level, energy traders are quickly locking in profits," Edward Moya, senior market analyst at data and analytics firm OANDA, said in a note.

Some traders worried high oil prices will stoke inflation, encouraging the U.S. Federal Reserve and other central banks to persist with high interest rates.

"Crude is now serving as a catalyst for bearishness ... as investors view high oil prices as reason for the Fed to persist with high rates for longer than originally planned in order to curb inflation," analysts at energy consulting firm Gelber & Associates said in a note.

The U.S. economy maintained a fairly strong 2.1% pace of growth in the second quarter and appears to have gathered momentum this quarter with a resilient labor market driving strong wage gains.

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Growth estimates for the July-September quarter are currently as high as a 4.9% rate. But the fourth quarter could see a sharp slowdown if there is a U.S. government shutdown on Oct. 1.

Fed officials are focused on the super core price measure after hiking the benchmark overnight interest rate by 525 basis points since March 2022 to the 5.25%-5.50% range.

FALLING US INVENTORIES

The premium of the WTI front-month over the second month held near a 14-month high for a second day. The market structure called backwardation occurs when spot prices are higher than future prices, giving energy firms little incentive to pay to store fuel for future months.

On Wednesday, WTI backwardation soared 48% to $2.38 a barrel, the highest since the end of July 2022, after government data showed stocks at the Cushing, Oklahoma, storage hub and delivery point for U.S. crude futures, extended their drawdown, also to the lowest since July 2022. [EIA/S]

"Cushing storage has shrunk to a historically low level, leading to a further increase in backwardation in the WTI curve," analysts at Barclays, a bank, said in a note.

"In the absence of a demand shock, it might take a sustained further narrowing of the WTI-Brent spread for a material turnaround in storage level at Cushing to occur," Barclays said.

Cushing's levels have slid to near historic lows due to strong refining and export demand, prompting concerns about quality of the remaining oil.

Meanwhile, tight prompt U.S. supplies have also narrowed the premium of Brent over WTI held near a five-month low after falling to $2.87 per barrel on Wednesday, its lowest since late April.

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Falling U.S. crude inventories follow combined cuts of 1.3 million barrels per day to the end of the year by Saudi Arabia and Russia, part of OPEC+, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies.

Russia said its ban on fuel exports will remain in place until the domestic market stabilizes and noted it has not discussed with OPEC+ a possible supply increase to compensate for that fuel export ban.

Latest comments

Healthy pullback on Its way to $100.
Simple profit taking today. Higher inflation could affect oil sector no more than any other sector.
less - the opec cartel decides the price of oil - add in the war and the desire of putin and mbs to get rid of biden equals oil higher for longer, getting rid of democracy is good for dictators
So isnt indicting your political opponents!
 depends, whether, there's actual evidence - if a criminal commits a crime he get prosecuted - kind of how democracy works - difference between faking evidence and a trial and presenting evidence - think biden - the GOP can't actually provide evidence but wants to impeach for political reason's and then there's trump - he testifies against himself every rally and has been for the last 3 years the mountains of evidence are irrefutable which is how he got that summary conviction in NYC - dictatorship verse democracy - no one is above the law - why putin can't travel anywhere in the free world - he will be arrested and go to the hague - just in case your unsure John E
This drop is profit taking and nothing more. The only reason oil isn't above 150 already is because of rate hikes killing demand coupled with an historic draining of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR)
a year or so ago, the oil bulls 'predicted' oil at 200-300 levels this year. now they're at it again.. lately, it's mostly been driven by saudi/russian market manipulation. as things stand, the demand just isn't there...
Oh And it Has nothing to do with the Biden administrations f’ed up agenda , right!!!!!
how so? do explain if you can..
Prices can continue to rise in the near term due to decreasing global inventories, but gasoline demand destruction will begin over $100/barrel and the Saudis will relax the production cuts before prices spike too high.
Try to calculate the price oil adjusting for inflation. Oil is still cheap
I can remember when we had so much oil they were paying to give it away.
Demand collapsed as covid brought shutdowns around the globe. A demand issue.
You have been deceived by the news. The oil will go down soon.
Oil will spike to 150+, thats when i short this market.
Agreed
If the price will spike when you go short, perhaps you should reconsider your trading strategy...};0)
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