Oil settles lower following Fed minutes as focus shifts to OPEC+ meeting

© Reuters

Investing.com -- Oil prices fell Tuesday, as the dollar steadied following the  release of the Fed minutes and investor focus shifted to this weekend’s eagerly-awaited meeting of a group of top producers. 

By 14:30 ET (19:30 GMT), the U.S. crude futures settled 0.1% lower at $77.77 a barrel, while the Brent contract gained 0.2% to $82.45 a barrel.

The crude benchmarks gained around 2% on Monday, adding on to Friday’s 4% rise, after Reuters reported that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and their allies, a group known as OPEC+, is set to consider whether to make additional oil supply cuts to shore up prices when it meets on Nov. 26. 

OPEC+ meeting looms large

Saudi Arabia, Russia and other members of OPEC+ have already pledged oil output cuts of about 5 million barrels per day, or about 5% of daily global demand, in a series of steps that started in late 2022.

This figure includes a voluntary reduction by Saudi Arabia of one million barrels per day and a 300,000 barrels a day cut in Russian oil exports, both of which last until the end of 2023.

“Growing expectations that we will see some action taken by OPEC+ at their upcoming meeting this weekend are providing support,” said analysts at ING, in a note. “Speculators will not want to go into this weekend with sizeable short positions. Given expectations, we will likely have to see at least Saudi Arabia rolling over their additional voluntary cut into 2024.”

That said, even if OPEC+ extends the cuts into next year, the global oil market will still see a slight surplus of supply in 2024, said Toril Bosoni, the head of the International Energy Agency's oil markets and industry division earlier Tuesday.

Dollar cut some losses even as Fed members offer little new insight on Fed policy

The US Dollar Index was slightly higher in a largely muted session as the minutes of the Fed's most recent meeting failed to offer fresh clues on the Fed policy.  

Federal Reserve policymakers were in support of keeping rates at restrictive levels for "some time" until inflation is clearly on a downward path, according to the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s Oct. 31-Nov. 1 meeting released Tuesday.

U.S. inventories in focus

Despite the recent gains, oil has dropped about 16% since late September, posting four straight weeks of losses, on concerns of worsening demand, and as crude output in the U.S., the world's top producer, held at record highs.

Data released last week showed a bigger-than-expected increase in U.S. oil inventories, and the latest U.S. inventory reports are forecast to show crude and stockpiles rose again the following week. 

This week's first report from the American Petroleum Institute is due later Tuesday, followed by the official numbers from the Energy Information Administration, on Wednesday.

(Peter Nurse and Ambar Warrick contributed to this item.)