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Grain futures - Weekly outlook: April 9 - 13

Published 04/08/2012, 09:43 AM
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Investing.com - U.S. grain futures ended the holiday-shortened week mixed, with soybeans and corn futures gaining on the back of rising demand for U.S. supplies on the export market, while wheat futures came under pressure from favorable weather conditions in key wheat growing regions in the U.S.

Floor trading on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange was closed on Friday in observance of Good Friday. European grain futures markets are closed on Monday for Easter.    

On the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, soybeans for May delivery settled at USD14.3138 a bushel by close of trade Thursday. On the week, prices rose 1.4%, the seventh weekly gain in the past eight.

Earlier Thursday, prices climbed to USD14.3412 a bushel, the highest since September 7.

Soybean prices have rallied nearly 16.5% since the beginning of February as market sentiment has been dominated by concerns over distressed crops in major South American soy growers and on hopes demand from top consumer China will remain robust in the near-term.

U.S. export data released Thursday pointed to further evidence of export demand shifting to the U.S. from South America.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture said that U.S. farmers sold 1.112 million tonnes of soybeans last week, up 88% from a week earlier and above a range of estimates for 0.60 million tonnes to 0.85 million.

Concerns over soy crops in Brazil lingered after influential industry group Informa Economics cut its forecast for Brazil's 2011-12 soybean production.

The industry group now sees Brazil harvesting 66.5 million metric tons of soybeans, down 2.2% from the firm's previous forecast of 68.0 million tons.

Informa also lowered its outlook for Argentinean soybean output to 45 million tonnes from a previous estimate of 47.5 million.

The gloomy South American crop outlook fuelled speculation the USDA will further cut estimates of soybean output from Brazil and Argentina when it releases its updated global supply and demand outlook on March 30.

Last month, the USDA lowered its combined soybean production estimates for Brazil and Argentina and said that reduced South American output will boost U.S. exports by 22% to a record 42.2 million tons in the marketing year that begins in September.

Brazil and Argentina are major soy exporters and compete with the U.S. for business on the global market. Downbeat South American crop prospects could increase demand for U.S. supplies.

Meanwhile, corn futures for May delivery settled at USD6.5788 a bushel by close of trade on Thursday. Prices climbed to USD6.6562 a bushel on Tuesday, the highest since March 19. On the week, prices added 0.57%.

Corn prices rose to as high as USD6.6312 a bushel on Friday, boosted by strong U.S. export sales, before coming off the highs of the session as investors squared positions ahead of the long Easter weekend.

The USDA's export sales report showed that corn exports totaled 937,600 metric tonnes last week, the largest in five-and-a-half-months and 65% above the four-week average.

The strong sales number included exports of 394,000 tonnes to China, the country’s biggest purchase since October.

The U.S. produced 38% of the world's corn last year, making it the both world's largest corn producing nation and the largest exporter of the grain, while China is the world’s largest consumer of the grain.

Meanwhile, prices continued to draw support from last week’s Prospective Plantings report from the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

The USDA said that corn inventories on March 1 fell by a greater-than-expected 7.9% to 6.009 billion bushels from a year earlier, the lowest for this time of year since 2004.

The supplies raised fears corn supplies will run low before the fall harvest, particularly as demand remains strong both at home and abroad.

Elsewhere on the Chicago Board of Trade, wheat for May delivery settled at USD6.3862 a bushel by close of trade on Thursday. Prices fell by 3.73% on the week.

Wheat prices came under pressure as favorable weather conditions in key wheat growing regions in the U.S. and in Russia were likely to benefit crops, underlining the view that global supplies are ample.

According to industry weather group Telvent DTN, showers were expected across most parts of the central and southern plains in the U.S. in the coming days.

U.S. winter wheat conditions were rated 58% ‘good’ to ‘excellent’ as of April 1, compared with 37% a year ago, according to the USDA’s weekly crop progress report.

The weather group added that rainfall was also expected in key winter-wheat areas in Russia and Ukraine, which was expected to help maintain soil moisture.

Meanwhile, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said earlier in the week that Australian wheat exports recorded their best month since 2003 in February, shipping 2.4 million tonnes of the grain, up 13% from January and 32% higher than a year earlier.

The figure took total Australian wheat exports to 9.52 million tonnes in the current marketing season, keeping them on track for a record on the season.  

An upbeat export outlook for the Pacific nation could result in reduced demand for U.S. supplies.

The U.S. is the largest wheat exporter, followed by Australia and Russia, according to U.S. Department of Agriculture data released March 9.

Corn is the biggest U.S. crop, valued at USD66.7 billion in 2010, followed by soybeans at USD38.9 billion, government figures show. Wheat was fourth at USD13 billion, behind hay.

In the week ahead, grain traders will continue to monitor weather conditions in South America and the U.S.

Meanwhile, the USDA was to release its weekly crop progress report on Monday, while markets await the agency’s closely-watched World Supply and Demand Report due out on Tuesday.

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