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TrimTabs, a premier research provider to the institutional investment community, recently identified three troublesome aspects of current bullishness in stocks. First, the dollar value of U.S. stock...
Is the stock market going up because there are more buyers than sellers? No. There are a fixed number of shares in the marketplace. For every buyer of a share, there needs to be a seller of the asset....
For several years, ultra-low interest rates “justified” paying higher stock prices for anemic earnings growth. The 10-year Treasury yield traded in a tight range between 2.0%-2.5%....
Assume for the moment that the corporate profit recession is finally over. In addition, presuppose that the earnings per share (EPS) growth rate for S&P 500 companies will approximate its median...
Public companies seldom distribute more to shareholders than what they earn in a given year. It is categorically uncommon for those corporations to pay out more in dividends and share buybacks than...
Recessions occurring in a new president’s first year in office? Over the last 100 years, they have taken place three times as often as in other periods. In fact, the initial year of a...
Here are a number of incontrovertible facts:1. A bull market in stocks ends every bear market 2. A bear market in stocks ends every bull market 3. The Federal Reserve cannot prevent a bear market in...
Last week, I wrote about the deteriorating employment picture. This week, investors received additional evidence that the “job growth is solid” crowd is inattentive.Consider the Federal...
Loretta Mester, President of the Cleveland Federal Reserve, described the weaker-than-anticipated September employment report as “solid.” She went on to say that “the unemployment...
There’s no doubt that stocks have recovered handsomely from their January lows. And there has been precious little stress on the road to stock asset recovery since the start of 2016....
The U.S. economy is barely expanding. Not only has growth slipped to 1.3% over the last 12 months, it has failed to reach the sub-par bar of 2% in three consecutive quarters. The big hope? 3rd quarter...
We live in the moment. We have short attention spans (and shorter memories). For the most part, we want to know how stocks will perform over the next few weeks or months.2026? 2027? Few...
An economy begins to grow, picks up steam, peaks, slows down, and eventually contracts. The process is known as the business cycle – an inevitable progression from expansion to recession to...
According to a Wealth-X census, the world’s billionaires have roughly 22.2% of their total net worth in cash. That’s the highest percentage since tracking began in 2010.Why are the...
Earnings per share (EPS) for the S&P 500 for Q2 came in at $87. Those results are no better than the EPS data from four years earlier. Worse yet, the $87 GAAP-based earnings are 18% lower than the...
The conductors of the crazy credit train – Janet Yellen, Mario Draghi, Mark Carney and Haruhiko Kuroda – are running out of tracks. Consider the following:1. Central banks own $25 trillion...
What do investors in “high quality” bonds worry about the most? The folks and Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Research wanted to know. It turns out, investors are increasingly...