ING Economic and Financial Analysis

By Benjamin SchroederThe fair value number for the US 10-year yield is 4%, but we really need to see Friday's payrolls number first. The bond market is screaming at us that it'll be weak. But unless...

The dollar has shown resilience after disappointing JOLTS job openings data yesterday, leaving EUR/USD under pressure as the euro’s idiosyncratic negatives fuel bearish momentum. Today, the Bank...

Supportive fundamentals, lingering geopolitical risks and expectations of Federal Reserve easing suggest the complex will trend higher next year. However, with plenty of uncertainty over global...

Markets have scaled back some dovish bets on the Fed at the start of this week, perhaps starting to position more cautiously ahead of a Fed pushback and key data releases. Today, JOLTS and ISM...

The dollar starts the week in a mixed fashion. USD/JPY is trading at a new corrective low, while EUR/USD continues to lick its wounds after a torrid session on Friday. The highlight of this week's...

By Benjamin Schroeder & Padhraic GarveyFinancial conditions eased markedly through November, as market rates fell and credit spreads tightened (record month for bond returns). The recessionary...

OPEC+ and soft eurozone inflation triggered a dollar rebound yesterday, but short-term rate spreads were already pointing to a weaker EUR/USD before then. Today, the focus will be on the US ISM...

By Benjamin Schroeder & Padhraic GarveyThe rates rally found its confirmation in German and Spanish inflation data ahead of today's eurozone release, but finally seemed to pause after more hawkish...

The further decline in USD rates means that it will now be up to activity data to trigger a recovery in the dollar. We have a couple of days packed with important US releases into the weekend, as well...

In what we thought was going to be a quiet week for FX, the dollar has extended its recent losses. Driving those losses have been Fed speeches welcoming signs of slowing economic momentum and lower...

By Padhraic Garvey & Benjamin SchroederRates continue to push lower after a soft 7-year US Treasury auction as Federal Reserve officials offer little pushback against the market's pricing of rate...

EUR/USD is eyeing the key 1.10 level, but we suspect that any breaks above that level will prove unsustainable as the rates picture remains broadly supportive for the dollar until the US growth...

Sentiment in the oil market remains negative despite the growing noise of potentially deeper OPEC+ cuts. Meanwhile, a weaker USD and lower treasury yields continue to push gold higherEnergy -...

By Padhraic Garvey & Benjamin SchroederNothing like a few auctions to help test the temperature. Yields sailed lower yesterday through the 2-year and 5-year UST auctions, which did not help their...

At the start of a quiet week for data, the dollar is hovering near recent lows. However, we do not think this is yet the start of the big, cyclical turn lower in the dollar we expect for next year....

By Benjamin SchroederMarkets are clearly eyeing the turn of the rate cycle, but amid central banks’ 'high for longer' messaging and data releases, volatility remains elevated. Add to that the...