ING Economic and Financial Analysis

Oil edged higher yesterday following some good US macro data. However, this data also increases the likelihood of further rate hikes. And the expectation of further hikes will ultimately provide...

Another day brings another set of data to support further Fed tightening. That should be the main story with the release of US personal income data and the core PCE deflator for May. Barring a data...

The Federal Reserve leaves US interest rates unchanged but signals more hikes are on the cards with some hawkish projections for the economy. July is a 'live' meeting, according to Powell, but a...

The European Central Bank continues its hiking cycle and shows no sign of pausing any time soon.One month ahead of the first anniversary of what has become the ECB’s most aggressive tightening...

It was a mixed set of data for the oil market yesterday. The IEA report was fairly neutral with both supply and demand growth estimates increasing by 0.2MMbbls/d. The weekly report from the EIA was...

Last week, the Fed traded the explicit openness to a pause with a pushback against rate cuts. Now, with US banking turmoil lingering and some key data on the horizon, markets may be tempted to price...

The oil market saw a second day of gains yesterday with Friday’s strong US jobs report providing support. In addition, the oil market is seeing further supply disruptionsEnergy – Canadian...

Headlines surrounding the abundant risks to the outlook dictate near-term direction, but we see a trend toward lower rates. The Senior Loan Officers Survey highlighted the squeeze on growth prospects....

Markets are understandably skittish about the health of the financial sector, which allows bonds to act as a safe haven. We would be wary of acting on large market moves ahead of a week heavy in event...

Yesterday’s risk-off move dragged commodities lower. And with little in the way of oil-related releases this week, oil price direction is likely to continue to be dictated by external...

USD: Be careful chasing the dollar reboundThe release of quarterly earnings in the US continues to paint a better picture for American corporates, with big tech companies beating estimates yesterday....

The most aggressive central bank tightening cycle for decades is reaching its finale. This is our definitive guide to global central banks as we enter another round of crucial meetings over the next...

We assess this year's market themes against our 2023 outlook calls. Rates remain range-bound, and curves have only steepened moderately, but rates differentials keep narrowing. We expect little...

As key central bank meetings draw closer, markets appear to favor European currencies to the detriment of the dollar, whose rate advantage is being eroded. The two-year EUR-USD swap rate differential...

As higher-for-longer gains further traction, yield curves are bear flattening again. Only moderately, though, as risk sentiment holds up with the acute banking crises fading from viewHigher-for-longer...

The commodities complex came under pressure yesterday with a stronger USD weighing on markets. Demand also remains a key concern for the oil market, while for grain markets, a resumption of Black Sea...