ING Economic and Financial Analysis

Another hold from the Federal Reserve with an acknowledgement that uncertainty has increased with more upside risk for both inflation and unemployment. This suggests little inclination to move until...

It was a sea of red across commodities as news that the Federal Reserve left US interest rates on hold, and signs it's likely to remain there, overcame enthusiasm about US-China trade talks Energy -...

One might have thought that news of formal trade talks between the US and China would have seen the US dollar bid better. In fact, the dollar is struggling to hold a 0.5% rally against the big...

Commodity markets are trading firmer amid news that US-China trade talks will kick off later this week. Energy: US-China Trade Talk Hopes Push Oil Higher News that the US and China will start trade...

The massive rally in the Taiwanese dollar over the past two sessions is raising concerns of US Dollar-rich Asian countries being the catalyst for the next broader USD decline. That may be premature,...

We expect today’s US payrolls to be at 110k, below the 138k consensus but, in our view, not low enough to trigger concerns about employment by either investors or the Fed. The dollar’s recovery trend...

US equities have now erased almost 90% of their losses seen in the aftermath of 'Liberation Day'. The mood music on trade has improved slightly, and a US-Ukraine minerals deal helps, too. The next...

Crude oil extended its fall in the early trading session today as broader market concerns have weighed on the complex, while the latest inventory numbers from the American Petroleum Institute (API)...

Consensus has shifted to -0.1% QoQ annualised for today's 1Q US GDP print following a wider than expected trade deficit for March. Details of the report, especially on consumer spending, will be...

Oil prices extended their declines this morning on a clouding demand outlook amid ongoing US tariff uncertainties and OPEC+ plans to increase output. Energy – Oil Slides on Weakening Demand...

The US dollar remains highly sensitive to both tariff-related news (Trump is planning auto parts relief measures) and US activity data. Today, major risks stem from JOLTS and consumer confidence...

Crude oil ticked up slightly this morning as the market remains cautious amid the developing situation over trade talks between the US and China. Meanwhile, European natural gas prices continue to...

The mood music coming from the European Central Bank (ECB) sounds fairly dovish, with some even speculating over 50bp of rate cuts. Concerns over inflation seem to have largely evaporated, and...

Financial markets are ending the week a little calmer. Traded US equity volatility has dropped back to 'Liberation Day' levels and some modest gains in global stock markets have seen the US dollar...

Scott Bessent and President Trump have delivered two consecutive days of positive headlines for US assets and the US dollar – from de-escalations with China, to a less aggressive stance on the Fed,...

Growing disagreements between OPEC+ members have oil sitting out the broader risk-on move seen across financial markets as tariff tensions ease. Energy – OPEC+ Struggles While a risk-on move lifted...