ING Economic and Financial Analysis

The monthly GDP numbers have been highly volatile, but we do expect slower growth over the coming months as the cooler jobs market and higher rates continue to bite The UK economy contracted by half a...

The oil market rallied yesterday on the back of a constructive OPEC report. Today, all attention will be on the IEA’s monthly oil report and whether the agency shares the same view as...

The USDA’s latest monthly WASDE report was constructive for wheat as adverse weather in Australia, Canada and the EU is expected to tighten global supply. However, the release was more bearish...

Markets are torn. Will the ECB hike this week or not? We think it will, but we look at how different scenarios can impact rates and FX. Even in our base case, we suspect that convincing markets that...

Energy markets remain well supported. ICE Brent is holding above US$90/bbl as the market tightens, whilst extended maintenance in Norway has supported European gas prices Energy - Middle Distillate...

We rationalize why US longer tenor rates are rising – basically, the curve is inverted and getting used to discounting structurally higher rates. If so, reversion to a normal curve must mean...

The oil market had largely expected the Saudis and Russians to extend supply cuts. What was unexpected was extending these cuts through until year-end Energy – Saudi Extends Cuts The oil market...

If the beleaguered euro and yen did not have enough to worry about already, they now have to cope with Brent oil trading above $90/bl as the Saudis extend their supply cuts through to year-end. Unless...

Higher interest rates and a stagnant economy keep bank lending on a weakening trend. Annual growth in broad money growth is now negative. This adds to expectations of a weak eurozone economy in the...

European natural gas prices rallied yesterday as the threat of strike action in the Australian LNG industry grew. This is after unions served a strike notice to Chevron (NYSE:CVX). Energy – A...

The ECB hawks have stepped in to revive depressed rate expectations, but markets are opting for data dependency, and EUR/USD is set to face two key risk events with eurozone inflation figures before...

The oil market continues to face headwinds, both on the macro front and on the back of expectations of supply increases. Meanwhile, the natural gas market could see further volatility over the coming...

While the People's Bank of China continues its battle to keep the USD/CNY under 7.30, markets will take a close look at PMIs today. The main focus will be on the eurozone – Germany in particular...

Oil edged higher yesterday following some good US macro data. However, this data also increases the likelihood of further rate hikes. And the expectation of further hikes will ultimately provide...

Another day brings another set of data to support further Fed tightening. That should be the main story with the release of US personal income data and the core PCE deflator for May. Barring a data...

The Federal Reserve leaves US interest rates unchanged but signals more hikes are on the cards with some hawkish projections for the economy. July is a 'live' meeting, according to Powell, but a...