ING Economic and Financial Analysis

At the press conference following the 25bp rate cut decision, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde showed an increased sense of urgency in light of ongoing trade tensions and increased...

A hawkish Powell failed to lift the US dollar yesterday, as the currency market remains heavily focused on risk asset relative performance. EUR/USD remains in a prime position to benefit from the...

The BoC kept rates on hold today, and gave very little guidance in light of elevated trade uncertainty. However, the bias remains on the dovish side, and we expect the negative growth impact from US...

FX markets are a little calmer, but traded volatility levels remain elevated. What interests us today is the February Balance of Payments data in the eurozone and the Bank of Canada rate decision....

The modest rebound in US equities yesterday shows markets remain jittery despite China tariff exemptions. The US dollar has failed to rebound despite a recovery in Treasuries; we doubt the confidence...

The ramifications of a global trade war are broadly negative for emerging and commodity-linked currencies. Liquid reserve currencies backed by large surpluses are likely to outperform. And we are now...

Commodity markets are under significant pressure amid tariff threats. Uncertainty over how tense things could get is clouding the demand outlook. We’ve cut our forecasts Oil Market Hit With Demand...

Crude Oil prices rose marginally yesterday despite OPEC trimming demand estimates. ICE Brent settled just below US$65/bbl. The market is digesting fast-moving policy developments on the tariff front...

It's early days, but conditions in FX markets look like they're settling a little as the Easter holiday approaches. The US dollar continues to trade on a weak footing, and we wonder whether currency...

The oil market is quiet in early morning trading today after settling lower for a second consecutive week last week. News that the Trump administration is offering tariff exemptions on certain...

The US dollar and treasuries are acting as high-beta assets to risk sentiment and remain highly vulnerable to further selloffs. Even if the dollar bounces on any hint of positive news on trade now,...

US inflation surprisingly undershot pretty much everyone's expectations in March, but higher prices from tariffs and supply chain disruptions are on their way. After all the volatility and...

President Trump's surprise pause on some of the highest tariff measures once again upends any pretence that we understand his strategy. Pressed by an 8-week 20% correction in US equities, it now...

President Trump surprised markets with a 90-day pause in reciprocal tariffs for most trading partners. This provided a boost to risk assets, including commodities. However, there’s still plenty of...

The 'sell America' scenario is becoming tangible again, as Treasuries and US equities are under pressure. That can be a very toxic combination for the US dollar. Markets are clearly punishing US...

Sentiment is rebounding, perhaps on the view that Trump may focus protectionism on China and speed up trade deals elsewhere. Markets may be erring on the optimistic side though, and we’d be cautious...