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Yen Mildly Higher As BoJ Stood Pat, Revised Economy Projections

Published 01/21/2015, 02:56 AM
Updated 03/09/2019, 08:30 AM
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The Japanese is mildly higher today as this week's pull back lost momentum. BoJ maintained its monetary policy unchanged in January but trimmed both growth and inflation outlooks. The central bank cut its core CPI forecast, for the current year ending March 2015, to 0.9% from previously projection of 1.2%. Core CPI for fiscal year 2015/16 was revised lower to 1% from 1.7% previously estimated. Real GDP growth forecast GDP for the current year stayed unchanged at 0.5%. Yet, the outlook for the next financial year was trimmed to 2.1% compared with 1.5% previously. Also released from in Asian session, Japan all industry index rose 0.1% mom in November New Zealand CPI dropped -0.2% qoq, rose 0.8% yoy in Q4, below expectation. Australia Westpac consumer confidence rose 2.4% in January.

UK events will be main focus in European session. BoE will release minutes of January MPC meeting. The central bank left policy on hold after the meeting, keeping refinancing rate unchanged at 0.50% and the asset purchase target at GBP 375b. The minutes are expected to show that policymakers remained uncertain on the amount of spare capacity in the labor market, and thus, uncertain on the timing of the first rate hike. Also, UK will release job data today and is expected to show claimant count dropped -25k in December. ILO unemployment rate is expected to drop to 5.9% in November Swiss will release ZEW expectations.

BoC rate decision is another main focus today. The central bank is expected to keep benchmark overnight interest rate unchanged at 1.00%. Correspondingly, the bank rate would remain at 1.25% and deposit rate at 0.75%. The central bank is also expected to maintain a relatively neutral bias in accompanying statement. But traders would be cautious on a shift to slightly more dovish stance. In particular, there could be hints on revision in GDP and inflation forecast due to recent sharp fall in oil prices. Also to be released in US session are Canadian wholesale sales and US new residential construction.

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