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Yen Mildly Higher As BOJ Maintained Policies

Published 04/08/2015, 05:15 AM
Updated 03/09/2019, 08:30 AM
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Yen is mildly higher while Japanese Nikkei 225 surges to 15 year high as BoJ left monetary policies unchanged as widely expected. BoJ maintained the pledge to increase monetary base at annual pace of JPY 80T and held interest rate near zero. Board member Takahide Kiu was the only dissenter which he proposed to taper both the monetary base increase target to annual pace of JPY 45T but was voted down 8-1. BoJ noted in the statement that the economy has "continued its moderate recovery trend", "exports have been picking up", business fixed investment on a "moderate increasing trends" and private consumption "remained resilient". Due to effects of energy prices, CPI is "likely to be about 0 percent for the time being".

Dollar is mildly higher this week and pared some post NFP losses but momentum is rather unconvincing. Dollar index reached 98.01 earlier this week but faced some resistance from the near term falling trend line and retreated. Overall, the index is still likely be in a consolidation pattern from 100.42 only and up trend resumption is expected later. Above 98.66 minor resistance will bring a test on 100.42 first. However, it should be noted that break of 95.48 resistance turned support could be a strong sign of medium term topping and we'd likely see deeper correction in that case.

US Dollar Index Chart

FOMC minutes for March meeting will be a major focus today. Given that there was a post meeting press conference with updated economic projections, today's minutes might not contain much new information. Nonetheless, attention will still be on whether policy makers are all comfortable with raising interest rate as planned this year and hints on the pace of policy normalization after the first hike.

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Elsewhere, Japan current account surplus narrowed to JPY 0.6T in February. Japan eco watchers current index rose to 52.2. in March. UK BRC shop price index dropped -2.1% yoy in March. German factory orders dropped -0.9% mom in February. Swiss will release CPI while Eurozone will release retail PMI and retail sales later today.

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