World Markets Update: Rally Takes A Pause

Seven of the eight indexes on my world watch list posted declines for the week, the reverse of the previous week, when seven had logged gains. The solitary advance (a fractional 0.12%) belongs to Japan's Nikkei 225. The two eurozone indexes, Germany's DAXK and France's CAC 40, finished second and third with modest declines of 0.16% and 0.40%, respectively. At the other end of the list, India's SENSEX dropped 2.65%, essentially cancelling its 2.69% gain as top performer the previous week.

The Shanghai Composite remains the only index on the watch list in bear territory -- the traditional designation for a 20% decline from an interim high. See the table inset (lower right) in the chart below. The index is down 37.78% from its interim high of August 2009. At the other end, the DAXK again traded places with the CAC 40 for smallest percent off high, with the S&P 500 1.96% off its all-time high set the previous week.

Here is snapshot of the YTD performances, with the volatile Nikkei as the ongoing attention-grabber.

For the past several weeks I've included a daily chart of the Nikkei with its Fibonacci retracement highlighted. The behavior of the index against this metric remains fascinating. Over the past week, the upper Fib 61.8 appears to have provided support for the sole weekly gain in our gang of eight. This Fibonacci "jungle gym" continues to be a feature of the Abenomics playground.

Here is a table highlighting the 2013 year-to-date gains, sorted in that order, along with the 2013 interim highs for the eight indexes. The strong performance of Japan's Nikkei, despite its big correction and subsequent volatility, puts it solidly in the top spot with a 41.99% YTD gain and closing in on its 2013 peak gain of 50.33%. That's over double the YTD gain of the runner-up S&P 500. Only the Shanghai Composite remains in the red YTD.


A Closer Look at the Last Four Weeks
The tables below provide a concise overview of performance comparisons over the past four weeks for these eight major indexes. I've also included the average for each week so that we can evaluate the performance of a specific index relative to the overall mean and better understand weekly volatility. The colors for each index name help us visualize the comparative performance over time.

The chart below illustrates the comparative performance of World Markets since March 9, 2009. The start date is arbitrary: The S&P 500, CAC 40 and BSE SENSEX hit their lows on March 9th, the Nikkei 225 on March 10th, the DAX on March 6th, the FTSE on March 3rd, the Shanghai Composite on November 4, 2008, and the Hang Seng even earlier on October 27, 2008. However, by aligning on the same day and measuring the percent change, we get a better sense of the relative performance than if we align the lows.

A Longer Look Back
Here is the same chart starting from the turn of 21st century. The relative over-performance of the emerging markets (Shanghai, Mumbai SENSEX and Hang Seng) up to their 2007 peaks is evident, and the SENSEX remains by far the top performer. The Shanghai, in contrast, formed a perfect Eiffel Tower from late 2006 to late 2009.

Check back next week for a new update.

Note from dshort: I track Germany's DAXK a price-only index, instead of the more familiar DAX index (which includes dividends), for constency with the other indexes, which do not include dividends.