New-crop corn for December has been sideways near $5/bushel for the last 5 weeks. But prior to that period, range-bound trading prices had appreciated 80 cents/ bushel during the 4 months leading up to this consolidation phase. I have been calling for a correction lower for several weeks now. The question is, will Friday's USDA report place the Bears in the driver's seat? see #'s below.
Outlook
As of mid-day Friday, futures were lower by just better than a dime trading at the $5 level below both the 9-day and 20-day MAs. My first objective is a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, which would drag this contact to $4.85. A forecast of record domestic production and rising stockpiles served as a double whammy on Friday. US corn growers are expected to produce 13.935 billion bushels this year topping last year's record of 13.925 billion bushels. As the USDA's data came in above analyst expectations, we should see red on the screen. Assuming this plays out, inventories could grow to as large as 1.726 billion bushels. That -- coupled with what appears to be a break in the weather allowing farmers to get in the fields -- the path of least resistance in the short run is lower in corn futures.
This table was put together by Doug Bergman - RCMs in house Ag specialist.