What's In The Cards For Novavax (NVAX) This Earnings Season?

Novavax, Inc. (NASDAQ:NVAX) is expected to report third-quarter 2018 results on Nov 6, after market close.

In the last reported quarter, the company’s loss was on par with the Zacks Consensus Estimate. Moreover, Novavax's earnings have missed estimates in one quarter, surpassed in one, and met in the other two quarters, the average negative earnings surprise being 0.11%.

Novavax’s shares have outperformed the industry so far this year. The stock has gained 37.1% against the industry’s decline of 19.6%.

Let’s see how things are shaping up for this announcement.

Factors Likely to Impact Q3 Results

Novavax is a clinical-stage biotechnology company focused on the discovery, development and commercialization of recombinant nanoparticle vaccines to prevent serious respiratory diseases and Matrix adjuvants.

For its lead vaccine candidate Resvax, the company achieved a critical enrollment goal in the Prepare study, enabling it to reach agreement with the FDA to initiate a final efficacy analysis in the first quarter of 2019. This analysis will support the future biologics license application (BLA) and marketing authorization application (MAA) in the United States and Europe, respectively.

In September 2018, the company initiated a phase II dose and formulation confirmation clinical study in older adults of NanoFlu- its nanoparticle seasonal influenza vaccine candidate. With top-line results expected in the first quarter of 2019, the company plans to discuss these data with the FDA at an end of phase II meeting and to agree on the appropriate phase III study design to support licensure via accelerated approval.

Investor focus will be on pipeline updates in the third quarter.

What Does the Zacks Model Unveil?

Our proven model does not conclusively show an earnings beat for Novavax in the to-be-reported quarter. This is because a stock needs to have both a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) to be able to beat estimates. But that is not the case here, as you will see below.

Earnings ESP: Novavax has an Earnings ESP of -2.85%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: Novavax currently has a Zacks Rank #3, which increases the predictive power of ESP. However, we need to have a positive Earnings ESP to be confident of an earnings beat.

Note that Sell-rated stocks (Zacks Rank #4 or 5) going into an earnings announcement are best avoided.

Stocks That Warrant a Look

Here are some stocks you may want to consider as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this quarter.

AMAG Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ:AMAG) is scheduled to report third-quarter results on Nov 1. The company has an Earnings ESP of +13.76% and a Zacks Rank of 3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Alnylam Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ:ALNY) is expected to report third-quarter earnings on Nov 6. The company has an Earnings ESP of +12.54% and a Zacks Rank of 3.

Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ:REGN) is scheduled to report third-quarter earnings on Nov 6. The company has an Earnings ESP of +4.65% and a Zacks Rank of 3.

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