Well we had a fun week last week, ECB out in force and US nonfarm coming in much lower than expected. All eyes at the beginning of the week were on the ECB and what Super Mario would announce come Thursday. Come Wednesday, though, the majority of the plan had been leaked and the markets started to price it in.
Thursday's confirmation gave a bit of optimism but the market still seemed a little concerned that this is still only a solution to buy time as opposed to anything more fundamental. That said, poor US data Friday gave the markets a real boost and we pushed significantly higher.
I expect to see some profit taking form Friday's positions (including myself), the aggressive move on Friday does seem a little extreme, therefore our strategy this week will be looking for short-term signals indicating a slight pull back or retracement looking for long entry signals again (don't fight the markets at the moment, I might think that the euro is still in serious trouble but trade with the trend).
Big week with the German constitutional court ruling on the 12th, but we would be very surprised if they did anything but accept the decision on both the ESM as well as the fiscal treaty even if most Germans now want to see court reject the ESM (note although we expect the German court to support the ESM we don't think they'll do it quietly).
We also have Trade Balance, FOMC statement and Retail Sales in the US, so big data week for the dollar, I wouldn't be surprised to see some further weakness which may just fuel more QE3 rumours and hecne more dollar weakness.
As always a review of the trades we took and highlighted in the members area, all played out extremely well this week.
- GBP/CHF long, managed to hit T2 before retracing all the way back; we booked half profits at T1 and closed at T2.
- EUR/CAD and GBP/CAD short, we preferred the GBP/CAD trade and managed to get a really good entry on a retracement back up the Pin, market was relatively choppy and we got stopped out for breakeven + costs. Good signals which may still play out but overall chop caught us.
- GBP/JPY long, took a while for this one to play off given the signal was from the end of August, however, it managed to make a T2 mark and we closed it for a nice profit.
- NZD/CAD short, nice early week trade we highlighted that we wanted to close before the announcements on Thursday, nicely hit T2 with a rather smooth decline, don't often play out quite so well.
Our Thursday set-ups played out extremely well
- USD/SEK and USD/CHF Shorts - strong double signal with the trend, normally quite a safe trade, had no idea it would play out so well though, we hit T2 easily on the day.
- We also highlight the option to long the EUR/USD given another with trend pin, if you took this it played out equally as well.
All in all a very good week, let's see what next week brings.
EUR/USD
Nice follow up from Wednesday night's signal. I would suggest this is a little overdone here, so we are moving stops up and taking some profit off, however, a rotation lower and good entry signal would put us long again. Well done to all those who took this trade, you really needed to stick to your plan to catch this. 
GBP/USD
As we highlighted last week, a break above the resistance (blue line) would likely push us higher, resistance comes in above at around the 1.6050 mark. A rotation lower to support might give us an opportunity to go long this pair.
AUD/USD
We maintain the view that this pair is overvalued given the situation in China. That said, the strong moves Thursday and Friday could mean we see a retest of recent highs. My overall bias is still Bearish and therefore for the moment I will stand aside on this, any alerts we get this week I will review in detail.
USD/JPY
After shocking nonfarm numbers, the USD/JPY went back to its previous range like a baby goes to a comfort blanket. A pair to stay away from at the moment.
AUD/CHF
Interesting with trend pin, few signals suggesting aussie shorts early week next week, and with the Chinese data coming in on target today, the aussie could remain flat, but I wouldn't be surprised to see some profit taking, therefore this signal may be worth a close look.
USD/SEK
Played out really well.
USD/CHF
What a lovely trade to catch. 