Wall Street will pay close attention to the first look at third-quarter GDP. After two consecutive quarters of negative readings, growth is expected to bounce back into expansion territory with a 2.3% reading. The consensus range for third-quarter GDP is between 1.1% and 3.0%. The October flash PMIs will also closely be watched, with manufacturing activity expected to edge lower but still remain in expansion territory. Service sector activity is expected to tick higher but still remain entrenched in contraction territory.
Peak earnings are here and everyone will want to see how mega-cap tech performs and what the oil giants will say about their future CAPEX plans. Attention on Thursday will be on Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) and Amazon's (NASDAQ:AMZN) quarterly results. Oil giants, Exxon (NYSE:XOM) and Chevron (NYSE:CVX) report before Friday’s opening bell. This is the critical week for guidance from mega-cap tech that will either make or break risk appetite.
The headline event next week will be the ECB meeting on Thursday when the central bank is widely expected to hike rates by 75 basis points. The question is how much further will they go? Markets are pricing in another 75 basis points over the course of the following two meetings and then 25 after that for two meetings. That would leave rates well below what we’re seeing elsewhere which is interesting when inflation is close to 10% and has been rising.
President Christine Lagarde also makes an appearance on Saturday, ahead of next week’s decision. PMIs on Monday get the week off to a fast start, with GDP and inflation seeing us into the weekend.
UK
A new week will bring a new Prime Minister in the UK, the third in two months, following the resignation of Liz Truss.
PMIs on Monday may also be of interest among all of the drama.
Russia
The CBR is expected to leave interest rates unchanged on Friday at 7.5% following a cycle of easing that’s seen the Key Rate fall from a peak of 20% in March.
South Africa
Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana will deliver the medium-term budget policy statement on Wednesday which provides economic forecasts, budget updates and any changes to spending.
PPI inflation data will also be released on Thursday.
Turkey
The CBRT will release its quarterly inflation report on Thursday which will no doubt be an interesting read. Official inflation above 80% in the midst of another aggressive easing cycle, the last rate cut being 1.5%, doesn’t suggest there’ll be many lessons learned. The CBRT also signalled another could follow at the next meeting, taking the rate to 9%, before it pauses again.
Switzerland
ZEW expectations survey and KOF leading indicator are the only releases of note next week.
China
The conclusion of China’s Party Congress will likely be followed up with the delayed release of GDP and activity data. The economy was losing steam battling strict anti-COVID measures and a deflated real estate sector. This year’s GDP reading could be the second slowest year of growth since 1976. The September retail sales and export data are also expected to show a significant deceleration.
Australia And New Zealand
The focus for Australia will be both on the delayed release of key Chinese activity data and the RBA’s preferred inflation gauge. Core inflation could hit a 31-year high and that could bolster the RBA to deliver another large rate hike.
In New Zealand, traders will also closely watch the swathe of Chinese economic data and a couple of key confidence reports. On Tuesday, the ANZ Business Confidence report is published and Thursday contains the consumer confidence readings.
Japan
The Bank of Japan is not expected to deliver any changes to its ultra-low interest rate and asset purchases. It will be hard to continue to maintain this dovish stance as inflation is above their target. A suspected intervention on Friday came following days of warnings from the Finance Ministry. How successful will this one be? The previous attempt didn’t hold off the yen bears for long.
Singapore
On Tuesday, September inflation is expected to remain hot but tick lower to 7.4%. Inflation is expected to remain high well into next year and that should keep the MAS in tightening mode.