USDCAD pivots gently higher but still constrained between trendlines
A decisive bounce above 1.3745 needed for fresh buying
Canadian CPI scheduled for release at 12:30 GMT; Fed speakers on the agenda too
USDCAD has been tip-toeing higher since its downward pattern that started after April’s peak stalled near the 1.3588 level last week.
Traders remain skeptical near the 1.3630 barrier and the 50-day SMA, as reflected by the soft price momentum. Interestingly, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the November-December 2023 downleg is in the neighborhood too.
Additionally, the recent upturn in the RSI hasn’t stretched above the 50 neutral mark, and the MACD remains in the negative region, signaling that selling interest hasn’t completely diminished. Yet, the rebound in the stochastic oscillator that took place near the 20 oversold level suggests that an increase towards the 20-day SMA at 1.3668 and the nearby resistance line at 1.3690 cannot be excluded, especially as long as the support trendline from December's low holds firm around 1.3622.
In the bullish scenario, where the price closes above 1.3690, the bulls could gain fresh impetus towards the 1.3740 constraining zone and the 78.6% Fibonacci. The upper band of the 2024 bullish channel is located in the same region. Therefore, a break higher may improve the outlook, prompting a new rally towards the 1.3800-1.3844 level. Additional gains from there might attempt to violate the long-term neutral territory above the 1.3900 number.
On the downside, a step beneath 1.3622 could initially retest last week's low of 1.3588 ahead of the important 1.3530-1.3550 trendline territory. Should the sell-off continue, the bears might next pause within the 1.3450-1.3475 region and near the 38.2% Fibonacci.
To sum up, USDCAD may encounter a challenging session in the short term. For the pair to attract new buyers, it must run sustainably above the 1.3745 bar. Conversely, should the pair fall below 1.3530, traders might engage in new selling activities.
Note that Canada will release its latest CPI report today at 12:30 GMT, while Fed speakers Williams and Bostic are scheduled to speak later in the day.