USD: Slow Going, But It’s Still Going

Yesterday went mostly well with a few minor detours. The Dollar grinds lower still and cautiously this trend should extend further. On Sunday I thought this move would have been done and dusted by now so this is dragging on rather like taking a donkey for a walk. The result is a sheer lack of new comments and a rather tired and dreary “Dollar to continue to move lower…”

Having said that, there are a couple of slight question marks that appeared over my head as I was going through the analysis. In particular GBP/USD had moved to a point that could either be treated as a deep projection but which will require a correction lower and that tends to conflict with EUR/USD. This is doubly strange due to the apparent disconnect with EUR/USD. There are certainly both 5-minute and hourly bearish divergences so it is something of which we need to be aware but at the same time, much higher than yesterday’s high would maintain the direction and I’ll have to rethink the structure.

The second anomaly is not so much a problem but a bit of a surprise. I had USD/CHF down to a limited decline yesterday. The way it has developed suggests the potential for a stronger decline. That may well prove to be the more direct and profitable European today.

The Aussie… Well, I’m tired of this one. However, my downside target comes from a daily structure so I’ll not give up on it yet. Still, much higher than we saw yesterday would make life difficult again.

The JPY pairs corrected higher a little deeper than I had hoped for but without making any serious breaks. I remain bearish in USD/JPY but EUR/JPY may well have other plans. The persistence of the rally in EUR/USD and the now limited downside in USD/JPY tends to point to a more stable cross. Leave EUR/JPY to settle and prove itself. Until then focus more on USD/JPY as it should have a more definable outcome.