USD/JPY has posted small losses on Monday. Currently, the pair is trading at 110.70. On the release front, there are no US events on the schedule. In Japan, the trade surplus jumped to JPY 0.47 trillion, beating expectations. All Industries Activity remained unchanged at 0.2 percent.
The Japanese currency continues to lose ground against the US dollar. Last week, USD/JPY climbed 2.7 percent, and has surged 5.9 percent since November 7, just prior to the US election. Earlier on Monday, USD/JPY climbed above the 111 level for the first time since the end of May. On Sunday, Japan’s trade balance climbed to JPY 0.47 trillion, beating the forecast of JPY 0.41 trillion. This was the indicator’s largest surplus since February 2015.
USD/JPY posted sharp gains on Thursday, following Fed Chair Yellen’s appearance before a congressional committee. Yellen did not explicitly acknowledge that the Fed would raise rates at the December 13-14 policy meeting, but she did say that the rate hike would be “relatively soon”. Yellen make no mention of Donald Trump’s potential policies, which could include greater fiscal spending, as she reiterated that future rate hikes should be “gradual”. The odds of a rate hike next month currently stand at 95 percent. Commenting on Yellen’s testimony, Jonathan Wright, a former Fed economist, summed up market sentiment – “a rate hike in December is a done deal, barring a significant surprise in the next jobs numbers or in financial markets”.
USD/JPY Fundamentals
Sunday (November 20)
- 18:50 Japanese Trade Balance. Estimate 0.41T. Actual 0.47T
- 23:50 Japanese All Industries Activity. Estimate 0.1%. Actual 0.2%
*All release times are EST
*Key events are in bold
USD/JPY for Monday, November 21, 2016
USD/JPY November 21 at 11:45 EST
Open: 110.94 High: 111.18 Low: 110.54 Close: 110.67
USD/JPY Technical
| S3 | S2 | S1 | R1 | R2 | R3 |
| 108.61 | 109.47 | 110.68 | 111.45 | 112.48 | 113.86 |
- USD/JPY was flat in the Asian session and has posted slight losses in European trade
- 110.54 was tested in support earlier and is a weak line
- There is resistance at 111.45
- Current range: 110.68 to 111.45
Further levels in both directions:
- Below: 110.68, 109.47, 108.61 and 107.49
- Above: 111.45, 112.48 and 113.86
OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio
USD/JPY ratio is unchanged in the Monday session. Currently, short positions have a majority (57%), indicative of trader bias towards USD/JPY continuing to move lower.