The USD/JPY has recently broken the early 2014 high of 105.50 and is now back to 2008 levels. The upside break of the post global financial crisis high is important, both fundamentally and technically and we see more upside in the pair.
Three things point to a weaker JPY leg: a reform of the investment strategy of the Japanese Government Pension Investment Fund, portfolio flows and eventually more easing from Bank of Japan (BoJ).
We revise our short-term USD/JPY forecasts higher on pension reforms and portfolio flows but maintain our 12 months USD/JPY forecasts at 114.
We recommend leveraged funds to buy a three-month USD/JPY ratioed seagull, exploiting elevated vols and limiting the downside in case of a USD/JPY retracement. Scandinavian corporates should hedge JPY expenses through forward extras.
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