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USD/CHF: 0.8820 Is A Key Level To Watch

Published 01/03/2014, 02:07 AM
Updated 07/09/2023, 06:31 AM
USD/CHF
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SUMMARY:
- 0.8820 is a pivotal level to watch and the line between bullish and bearish on LT
- Confirmation of bullish wedge targets 0.9716
- Break below 0.8820 invalidates the pattern and targets 0.8500

USD/CHF MONTHLY: Still technically bearish but with caution

Originally I had highlighted the potential for a Head and Shoulders top to bring us back in line with the long-term bearish trend. These patterns can be particularly messy and fiddly at the best of times but the lack of bearish momentum after we broke below the suspected 'neckline' leaves me with less confidence of this particular pattern occurring.

That said whilst the pattern may not work out it could simply mean we will see a new pattern forming and there is still an argument for the bearish outlook. We can see that the 50eMA has continued to cap as resistance and we are forming prominent swing highs. Additionally the cycle peaks are relatively well defined and rhythmical, so I am not ruling out the potential for a lower low or a much deeper retracement (see previous analysis to see potential levels).
<span class=USD/CHF Monthly Chart" title="USD/CHF Monthly Chart" width="452" height="629">

USD/CHF WEEKLY: Potential Bulish Wedge forming?

We are hovering around a support zone around 0.8820 with 2 bullish Hammers failing to break this level. This warns of sideways trading or potential for a bullish reversal. A Wedge pattern is also a feasible one to consider. Whilst many may not trade the actual weekly charts it does provide a plan of action on the lower timeframes in the event the bullish wedge is confirmed.

A bullish break of the wedge may provide buying opportunities on the daily timeframe (and below) and for you to target the 50 eMA on weekly (or 200eMA on daily). It is also possible we may retrace back towards the broken trendline or the 0.8820 support zone where further buying opportunities may occur.

If we break below 0.8820 then the original longer-term bearish bias is back as the preferred outcome.
<span class=USD/CHF Weekly Chart" title="USD/CHF Weekly Chart" width="452" height="629">

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