US Dollar Keeps Climbing In Large Speculator Trading: COT Data

CFTC COT Monday Release due to Thanksgiving Holiday

The latest data for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report, released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Monday due to US Thanksgiving holiday, showed that large traders and currency speculators continued to raise their overall US dollar bullish bets higher for a second straight week.

Non-commercial large futures traders, including hedge funds and large speculators, had an overall US Dollar long position totaling $47.99 billion as of Tuesday November 25th, according to the latest data from the CFTC and dollar amount calculations by Reuters. This was a weekly change of +$1.54 billion from the $46.45 billion total long position that was registered on November 18th, according to the Reuters calculation that totals the US dollar contracts against the combined contracts of the euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and the Swiss franc.

The US dollar’s aggregate bullish level continues to be in a very strong standing with gains four out of the last five weeks and the overall level remains above the +$40 billion level for an eighth consecutive week. Each of the individually tracked currencies have now had a net bearish position versus the dollar also for an eighth week (see data below).

According to Reuters, the current $47.99 billion bullish position is the highest USD position since 2008.

Overall Speculative Net US Dollar Contracts

In terms of total net speculative contracts, overall US dollar contracts rose for a fifth straight week last week to +418,825 contracts as of Tuesday November 25th. This was a change by +25,296 contracts from the total of +393,529 contracts as of Tuesday November 18th. This total US dollar contracts calculation takes into account more currencies than the Reuters dollar amount total and is derived by adding the sum of each individual currencies net position versus the dollar. Currency contracts used in the calculation are the euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Swiss franc, Canadian dollar, Australian dollar, New Zealand dollar and the Mexican peso.

Major Currency Weekly Levels & Changes: One Sided – All currencies have net bearish position versus the USD for 8th week

Overall changes on the week for the major currencies showed that large speculators increased their bets last week in favor of the euro and the Canadian dollar while decreasing weekly bets for the British pound sterling, Japanese yen, Swiss franc, New Zealand dollar, Australian dollar and the Mexican Peso.

This latest COT data is through Tuesday November 25th and shows a quick view of how large speculators and for-profit traders (non-commercials) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the dollar will gain versus the euro.

Please see the individual currency charts and their respective data points below.

Weekly Charts: Large Speculators Weekly Positions vs Currency Spot Price

EuroFX:

Last Six Weeks data for EuroFX futures

British Pound Sterling:

Last Six Weeks data for Pound Sterling futures

Japanese Yen:

Last Six Weeks data for Yen Futures

Swiss Franc:

Last Six Weeks data for Franc futures

Canadian Dollar:

Last Six Weeks data for Canadian dollar futures

Australian Dollar:

Last Six Weeks data for Australian dollar futures

New Zealand Dollar:

Last Six Weeks data for New Zealand dollar futures

Mexican Peso:

Last Six Weeks data for Mexican Peso futures

*COT Report: The weekly commitment of traders report summarizes the total trader positions for open contracts in the futures trading markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators).

The Commitment of Traders report is published every Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and shows futures positions data that was reported as of the previous Tuesday (3 days behind).

Each currency contract is a quote for that currency directly against the U.S. dollar, a net short amount of contracts means that more speculators are betting that currency to fall against the dollar and a net long position expect that currency to rise versus the dollar.