Talking Points:
- US Dollar Aiming to Move Higher After Correction
- S&P 500 Pullback Still Stuck at Chart Support Level
- Crude Oil Drops to 2-Month Low, Approaches $100
US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices rebounded as expected after putting in a Bullish Engulfing candle pattern at support set from October 2013. A shallow pullback looks corrective in the context of the upside breakout that cleared resistance at the top of a falling channel set from early June. A daily close above resistance at 10431, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, targets the 50% level at 10452. Alternatively, a turn below triple bottom support in the 10354-75 area targets a multi-year horizontal pivot in play since August 2010 at 10306.
S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices are edging lower as expected after putting in a bearish Evening Star candlestick pattern at the top of a rising channel set from mid-April. A break below the 14.6% Fibonacci retracement at 1960.10 on a daily closing basis exposes 1944.20-46.80 area, marked by the channel floor and the 23.6% level. Near-term resistance is at 1985.90, the July 3 high, followed by the underside of a previously broken trend line at 1989.80.
Gold Technical Analysis – Prices broke upward out of a consolidation range, with buyers now testing resistance marked by the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion at 1343.20. A move above this barrier on a daily closing basis exposes the 50% level at 1354.20. Negative RSI divergence warns of ebbing bullish momentum however and hints a reversal lower may be ahead. A reversal below the 23.6% Fib at 1329.58 aims for the July 3 low at 1307.58.
Crude Oil Technical Analysis – Prices renewed their push downward, breaking below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 101.36. Sellers now aim to challenge the $100.00 figure, followed by the 50% level at 99.42. A push below the latter level opens the way for a test of the 61.8% Fib at 97.49. Alternatively, a turn back above 101.36 eyes the 23.6% retracement at 103.76.
