UK CPI y/y release could definitely be a market mover if we were to get our tradable deviation today, in either direction. With BOE’s Carney being remarkably hawkish recently, and the fact inflationary pressure could go over 3%, it should be a game changer for GBP to move up as traders pretty much have been anticipating this move since a few weeks ago.
Of course, just to be safe, if the opposite is true, or a 2.6% or less figure is released, we could see some sharp selling of GBP but ultimately I would be looking to buy at the bottom, towards the open of Asian session the next trading day.
4:30am NY Time UK CPI y/y Forecast 2.9% Previous 2.9%
DEVIATION: 0.3% (BUY GBP 3.2% / SELL GBP 2.6%)
The Trade Plan
We are looking for a variable deviation of 0.3%. If the Inflation number remained above 3.2%, we will BUY GBP. If the Inflation number decreases to 2.6% or less, we´ll look to SELL GBP. Historically, even with a slight difference of 0.1%, market usually overreacts. If our deviation is hit, there is a strong possibility that the market will move 50 pips immediately.
We´ll be looking to trade this release using my after-news retracement method. We´ll wait for the release, wait for market spike, and then wait for a decent retracement before jumping in.
I’d recommend to use the Recommended Pairs from above as they are based on my CSM, which should provide the best combination of currency pairs to trade based on better/worse news, of course, you can also trade the default pair: GBP/USD.
Outlook Score
Outlook score is derived from market sentiment, focus, and economic indicators for the currency. It represents the long-term trend of the currency and its market perception. In short, a strong Outlook Score means more long-term demand for the currency, and a weak Outlook Score is the opposite.
Definition
“CPI, Consumer Price Index, is a statistical estimate of the movement of the prices of goods and services bought for consumption purposes by households. Its computation uses price data collected for a sample of goods and services from a sample of sales outlets in a sample of locations for a sample of times and estimates of the shares of the different expenditures in the total covered by the index which are usually based upon expenditure data obtained for sampled periods from a sample of households Wikipedia).” It is also known as the “True Cost of Living”.