Technical Outlook:
- Thursday marked the third straight day of selling for the S&P 500 (albeit barely), but the day's results saw a hard bounce off of the morning lows.
- Potential higher-low established on Thursday for the current trend off of the 2/11 lows.
- Last week marked the first time in six weeks that S&P 500 had finished in the red.
- S&P 500 tested the 10-day moving average, and despite dipping below it intraday, managed to reclaim the MA.
- Declining trend-line off of the November highs looks to be retested again this week.
- It is very possible right now, that we continue to rally into May before the market sees any strong renewed selling interest, much like the case of 2008 where a similar event took place before the rest of the year was mired in heavy selling.
- Nasdaq has remained relatively strong over the previous three trading sessions, with there only being one day finishing in the red during that same time period.
- 20-day moving average on VIX continues to cause heavy selling every time it is tested. The same happened again on Thursday with an extremely hard reversal.
- T2108 (% of stocks trading above their 40-day moving average) continues to hold its current levels.
- Bears should be targeting a break of last week's lows on the 30 minute chart to jump start the sell-off.
- Volume remained extremely weak on Thursday, and in line with the week's readings and well below current averages.
- Tons and tons of year long resistance between 2040 and all-time highs.
- The theme in the market of late is not how much it is going up each day but how much it manages to recover off of the lows of the day.
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My Trades:
- Sold ProShares UltraPro Short S&P500 (NYSE:SPXU) on Thursday at $30.26 for a 2.3% profit.
- Added one new swing-trade to the portfolio on Thursday.
- Currently 10% Long / 90% Cash
- Will look to add some new long positions today as long as last week's lows hold.
