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Here’s The Key To Gold’s Next $100 Move

ByTommy Humphreys
Published 02/23/2015, 04:30 PM
Updated 07/09/2023, 06:31 AM

The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note has surged 50 basis points in the past few weeks and in turn gold has fallen nearly $100/oz. The negative correlation between yields and gold has been strong for the last 6 years and this correlation has become even stronger in recent weeks.

Gold Vs. U.S. 10-Year Yield

Since the 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis, gold has held a strong inverse correlation to real 10-year yields.

Recently, the negative correlation between gold and 10-year yields has reached 90%. (bottom of chart below.)

The CBOE 10-Year Yield Index

Given the strong correlation between 10-year yields and gold, there are a couple of key yield levels to watch in the 10-year note over the coming weeks.

Yield Levels To Watch

The recent rally in yields stopped at a logical area of resistance (~2.15%). A breakout above 2.15% would have negative implications for gold, whereas a decline back below the 2.00% yield area should set in motion the next leg higher in gold.

Via Energy and Gold.com

Latest comments

these socalled selfclaimed analysts say as DXY rises or 10yr yield comes down so as Gold will come down.But the same bunch of analysts don't have any answers either in 1997 -2000 or 2001 to 2004 when US FED rised rates simultaneously gold too rised.Why don't may not happen this time too as like yester years
Wow, good old Tommy H is still calling for higher gold as he has been all the way down from 1800. Just go back and read his previous bullish articles on gold. He has been wrong every time. He refuses to see the bear in the room. When will he ever learn. Gold is in a bear market and will continue to do so. This guy should be banned from writing about his opinion on gold as he has a history of being completely absolutely on the wrong end all the way down. The real danger is that someone will actually follow his advice and lose their money.
Ha ha, so it's either going up or down. That makes sense.
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