The Rift Between OPEC And U.S Fluctuates Oil Levels, Eyes on U.S Inventories
Fundamentals:
The conflict between OPEC and U.S with opposed interest seeking high and lower oil prices becomes clearer as events accelerate, creating high volatility between ups and downs for oil. It's obvious that the two parties (OPEC and U.S), OPEC and Non-OPEC counties are highly dependable on crude oil as a source of economical income and they are sufficient as local production, whilst the U.S local oil production does not cover up its local demand, not to mention crude oil imports.
Add to that, U.S Shale production is more expensive than oil produced by OPEC counties. Recent Tax plan released by Trump's administration, cutting corporate tax from 35% to 15%, was highly questioned by analysts as the plan itself, could lead to U.S trade deficit, and since U.S is the highest consumer for crude oil after China, you can understand clearly why the U.S will do its best, keeping markets glutted with oil supply, which logically results in lower oil prices taking into consideration that supply overpasses demand.
On the other hand, OPEC's recent meeting and next meeting still in Vienna, focuses on one title, cutting or reducing their oil production in order to curb global glut, keeping it below global demand would result in higher oil prices. OPEC also followed a tactic where a report is released on monthly basis, measuring oil production compliance as a reminder that the higher a compliance is, markets would take the cutting-production-deal more serious, hence pushing oil prices higher.
Now we have established the above fundamentals, traders can understand why oil prices were highly fluctuating like ping pong recently, a strike from U.S, and a respond from OPEC. The sharper tone that the strike is, the more impact it has on oil bullish and bearish forces.
On Friday, oil dipped to $43.73 bp, lowest since Nov-2017, after signs in the Straits of Malacca, dozens of tankers loaded with record amounts of unsold fuel show an OPEC-led agreement to cut production in the first half of 2017 has yet to tighten the market.
Yesterday, Crude levels remained bearish with a higher low than Friday at $45.52 bp after the American Petroleum Institute (API) reported a hefty draw of 5.789 million barrels in United States crude oil inventories, compared to analyst expectations that markets would see a crude oil draw of 1.8 million barrels for the week ending May 5. (Reuters).
Other factors contributed to crude bearish prices report released yesterday showing that Libya’s oil production has reached 780,000 barrels per day, the highest level since October 2014, according to new data collected from an anonymous source by Bloomberg. Oil prices have been tumbling since last week, when both Libya and Nigeria, the countries exempt from OPEC’s production reduction deal, reported climbing outputs as the nations recover from years and months of domestic strife, respectively.
Oil managed to recover from yesterday's lows after Reuters reported that Saudi Arabia would cut supplies to the region as OPEC battles against rising U.S. output that is threatening to derail its attempts to end a sustained global glut in crude. State-owned Saudi Aramco will reduce oil supplies to Asian customers by about 7 million barrels in June, a source told Reuters, as part of OPEC's agreement to reduce production and as it trims exports to meet rising domestic demand for power during the summer.
Today, crude oil showed stingy price action with 34-pips with 46.34 high, indication low volatility and it's expected to remain still, but market should expect higher movements for oil as U.S released its Crude Oil Inventories at 2:30 PM GMT.
Summary: Crude is expected to remain bearish for the short run given the date distance between API reports showing an increase supply, and OPEC and Non-OPEC next meeting on May 25th. On the short run, traders trade on the fact the U.S currently has the upper hand with messages that markets are glutted, and since doubts still revolves around OPEC next meeting and its possible outcomes taking into consideration that OPEC has insisted that the compliance should be mutual by both OPEC and Non-OPEC counties.
Technical Overview:
Trend: Bearish
Resistance levels: R1 46.74, R1 47.82, R3 48.99 (D1)
Support levels: S1 45.69, S2 44.93, R3 44.10 (D1)
Comment: Friday's spike reversal still suggests an extreme bottom. Look for retracements over the next few days. We may yet see residual bear forces pull trade down into the spike, but suspect support will emerge at 44.93*. A close under 4493* is needed to resume washouts. Likely any congestion in the upper half of Friday's reversal will help bottom the market and lead into recovery rallies. A close over 47.47*/47.82* are bullish.