Get 40% Off
☕ Buy the dip? After losing 17%, Starbucks sees an estimated 20% upside. See the top Undervalued stocks!Unlock list

The Interest Outlook Is Still Driving USD Up Weighing Down On Equities

Published 05/23/2018, 01:31 AM
Updated 03/09/2019, 08:30 AM

The gold is still forced to be traded below $1300, after the slide below this psychological level on rising of the interest rate outlook in US last week sent UST 10yr yield well above 3% recording its highest level since 2014 at 3.111%.

UST yield rising drove the borrowing costs higher in the secondary markets across the globe weighing down on the demand for risky assets at these levels.

The investors became more worried about the outlook of the US equities which are struggling to find lower geopolitical risks times to move up basing of the US economic fundamentals.

While the dollar is still boosted by the interest rate outlook differential with the other major currencies, as the doubts increased about the ability of their central banks to follow the Fed in this tightening path.

At this phase of the cycle, we see the inflation in EU is looking easing down, after EU CPI has shown decelerating to only 1.3% yearly in March to weigh down on the interest rate outlook in EU.

The inflation outlook in the beginning of this year could send EURUSD well above 1.20 by raising the expectations of having an interest rate hiking by the end of the year but now these expectations diminished.

But the single currency depreciation to the current level and the oil prices rising to these unprecedented levels since 2014 can be able rebuild another upside inflation wave to higher rate.

While the EUR can be undermined by increasing worries about the future of Italy in EU which is waiting now for Italian populist government leaded by League of the 5 stars which is eager to have large Italian debt write-down, after the austerity measurements weakened the Italian economy and dampened the political stability in it.

3rd party Ad. Not an offer or recommendation by Investing.com. See disclosure here or remove ads .

While the situation in UK is still looking weaker and worrying, after Governor Carney described to BBC that The Brexit uncertainty could delay interest rate hiking which will be gradually.

The Brexit uncertainty is actually an important factor and it is still containing the market sentiment weighing down on GBP.

Carney's dovish comments came along with UK Q1 GDP barely quarterly expansion by only 0.1% has been the weakest since the last quarter of 2013 to weigh down on the British pound versus the greenback to be traded currently well below 1.35.

In the same in Japan, we have seen last week how its Q1 GDP shocked the markets by contraction by 0.2% quarterly and 0.6% yearly, while the consensus was referring to no change after expansion by 0.4% quarterly and 0.6% yearly in the last quarter of last year.

Meanwhile, It seems that we are to spend longer time, before having any sign of a tightening action, as the BOJ can be more eager in keeping its Ultra easing policy running with The Japanese PM Abe's "Abenomics" stimulating policy for propping up the economy and the inflation to reach its 2% yearly inflation target as well.

While Japan National CPI ex fresh foods which is the favorite gauge of inflation to BOJ came last Friday to show yearly decelerating to weakest rate since last September rising by only 0.7% in April, after 0.9% in March and 1% in February.

The Japanese yen could have the excuse to come down, however it is expected to find demand time to time on the risk aversion sentiment, as a low yield financing currency.

3rd party Ad. Not an offer or recommendation by Investing.com. See disclosure here or remove ads .

The JGB 10yr yield is now near 0.05%, while BOJ is still on its obligation of keeping this yield close to zero till reaching its 2% inflation yearly goal.

It was not also the same case of the beginning days of this year when BOJ decided on Jan. 9 to lower its purchases of long term bonds sparking speculations of watching closer monetary policy normalization or tapering of its QE ultra easing policy.

Latest comments

Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.
© 2007-2024 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.