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Stocks finished the day, mostly higher, with the S&P 500 up around 85 points. The index really couldn’t get much beyond 4,520, which is now turning into a powerful level of resistance, and has been that way since mid- last week. A rise above that resistance level sets up a run to around 4,545.
The sellers had been showing up the last three days around 3:15 PM. Yesterday they didn’t show up, which left the index trading flat those last 45 minutes.
I really can’t see anything that gives me a lot of conviction one way or the other. Based on the data I have seen, liquidity remains thin, and spreads are wide. So it wouldn’t take much effort to move this market one way or the other at this point.
In fact, despite a gain in the NASDAQ Composite of more than 1%, there were still more stocks making new lows than new highs. The cumulative chart shows that the indicator is still making new lows, and diverging from the index. In fact, the current pattern is starting to look a lot like the fall of 2018 setup.
The 10-year rate rose to 1.96% and was just about breaking out at time of writing. The next significant level of resistance comes at 2.15%, but there is no reason this yield can’t push to 2.4% over the next few weeks.
The iShares TIPS Bond ETF (NYSE:TIP) made a new closing low on Tuesday for this cycle, at $123.70. I don’t see why the TIP ETF can’t go back to pre-pandemic levels at $121.80.
Meta Platforms (NASDAQ:FB) was trading below its pre-COVID highs. Pretty remarkable. I think this was just dead money, with a business model that was being called into question. Believe it or not there was a gap at $195 just waiting to be filled.
Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL) saw its entire gap from last week’s earnings close up. I’m not sure what happens next.
Now if Amazon.com (NASDAQ:AMZN) can fill its gap, that would be great. That gap should get filled over time, I don’t see why it shouldn’t.
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