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S&P 500 and US Tech: New All-Time Highs by March 2024?

ByPietro Celestino
Published 09/15/2023, 03:27 AM

A Bullish wave, initiated by the paramount monthly Time Factor of February 2023 for the S&P500 P/T 4.223 (High 4.195 Low 3.943), punctuated a vigorous upward movement in the American stock markets. This Climb ignited from the October 2022 Timing's low and validated by the bullish breakout in November 2022, momentarily halted at the July 2023 setup, as previously outlined in our analysis of US tech markets (details available on the Italian section of the website).Nasdaq 100 Monthly 2002 P/T
Nasdaq 100 Monthly 2002 T/P

We now find ourselves at a potential juncture for all US indexes. When observing through a weekly lens, the current dynamism is profoundly influenced by the Timing originating from the 2020 cycle, encompassing all US markets. Specifically, the S&P 500 recent 4/8 September 2023 P/T 4.351 (High 4.514 Low 4.430) Timing serves as a significant directional beacon for the trajectory of US stock prices in the forthcoming weeks and months.
S&P 500 Weekly Chart 2020 T/P

It's essential to remember that short-term dynamics, like the weekly ones, often exhibit higher instances of false breakouts before markets settle in a decisive direction. The last week's tight trading range, confined within just 100 points, will set the tone leading up to the crucial monthly Timing expected for March 2024 P/T 4.986 / 5.071, in synergy within the quarterly setup of Jan/Mar 2024 P/T 4.506. The prevailing sentiment suggests that if the index breaks past 4.514, it could be poised to further escalate, possibly touching new all-time highs by the third month of Q1 2024. Conversely, a structured dip below the 4.430 area could recalibrate the market towards the pivot zone around 4.111.S&P 500 Monthly Chart 2009 P/T
S&P 500 Monthly Chart 2009 T/P

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A parallel narrative unfolds for the tech markets. Recognizing their significant influence on the S&P 500, we observe an analogous monthly Timing for March and Q1 of 2024 concerning the NASDAQ Composite P/T 16.451 / 16.625. However, it's pertinent to note that the Nasdaq 100 has a distinguished Timing, rooted in the 2008 cycle, placing it four months ahead of other indexes. This Timing is slated for November 2023 at Nasdaq 100 P/T 16.378 / 16.858.
Nasdaq 100 Monthly Chart 2008 T/P

Latest comments

https://it.investing.com/analysis/sp500--dow-jones-industrial-febbraio--marzo-2024-timing-di-top-200466400
The latest bullish impulse triggered by the #october23 setup has confirmed the expectation previously outlined in our articles, marking the achievement of new all time highs for #SP500, #DJI and #Nasdaq100. The Time/Price targets set at 4.986/5.071 for #SP500, 38.819/41.029 for #DJI and 17.685/18.298 for #Nasdaq100 underline a phase of fundamental evolutionary importance, characterizing this first quarter, as it marks the Timing of a "potential" and significant selling top for both American and European equities, reaching the concluding phases of cycles that began with the 2009 bottom.
Delving into the details of the short term dynamics caused by weekly compressions, the historical timings of 30/3 and 6/10 November 2023 have, as expected, triggered a strong bullish impulse, confirmed by the breakout from their respective tops, and facilitating an excellent year end closure for 2023 for the American indexes with the achievement of new all time highs.
Now, important timings are noted for the week of 29/2 February, making the exit from the extremity of the last weekly octave highly impactful. Knowing that, in short term dynamics, one is more prone to witness potential false exits before the actual evolutionary dynamic is outlined, a potential bullish exit from last week, from the current octave, will favor further extensions or at least a sideways bullish dynamic to the next Timing of March 4/8 and 18/22, 2024; the opposite scenario in case of a bearish exit; thus, these bars are configured as the "Time within time", making the mentioned weeks among the most important within the quarter as well as the two months, subject to important evolutionary expiry.
In the opinion of the writer, should this event occur, it could constituite an interesting buying opportunity. Such expectation, even in the presence of "a potential" retracement up to 20% of the indexes, would still take on the characteristics of a potential bullish pullback that would be able to structure a clear and strong bull trend, giving it grater solidity for the years to come. Real allarms, from an institutional perspective, would only tigger in case of a breach of the lows of october 2022, a scenario considered remote given the market intentions already manifested with the bullish violation of the timing Oct-Dec21, Jul-Sep22, in addition to surpassing the annual high of 2022; quaterly and annual timings whose validity, well demonstrated in the past, will accompany the market for quite some time, thus necessitating constant monitoring of the extremes of such bars, beacons for understanding/evolution of market movements for the coming months/years.
Gann did it again, but i don't understand why u refuse to publish the new article available in the italian part of the website. Anyway I'll try to add my view on that comment...
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