Market movers ahead
In the US , the FOMC meeting is the main event. In our view, the Fed will not raise the federal funds target range this year, in light of sluggish growth and continued labour market slack. We expect Markit manufacturing PMI to confirm this picture.
In Japan , we do not expect the Bank of Japan to ease monetary policy at next week's meeting but we expect it to abandon calendar-based communications and instead pursue 2% inflation 'at the earliest possible stage'.
In the Scandies , we expect focus to be on next week's meeting at Norges Bank, when we expect Norges Bank to keep interest rates unchanged but present an interest rate path that indicates a 50% chance of a cut this year.
Global macro and market themes
Risk markets face a new headwind from a loss of momentum in the business cycle.
Weakness in US data supports our call that the Fed will stay on hold this year.
Bond yields in the US and Germany are set to stay at low levels for at least the rest of the year.
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