October’s NFIB survey of small business owners continued to show an improving trend in almost all categories. The data can be volatile on a monthly basis, so I track various monthly averages. October’s Small Business Optimism Index (on a 12-month basis) rose to 94.6, the best reading since April 2008. The percentage of respondents reporting “poor sales” (on a six-month basis) fell to 12.8% last month, down sharply from the cyclical peak of 33.2% during March 2010. (By the way, this series is highly correlated with the unemployment rate.)
The survey corroborates lots of other positive labor market indicators. On a 12-month basis, the percentage of firms with one or more job openings rose to 23.4%, the highest since February 2008. The percentage expecting to increase employment rose to 9.4%, the best reading since May 2008. Capital spending plans aren’t as strong, though more owners say it is a good time to expand.
