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Short-Term Currency Outlook: December 16, 2012

Published 12/16/2012, 05:00 AM
Updated 05/14/2017, 06:45 AM
EUR/USD
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GBP/USD
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USD/JPY
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ENI
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Main analysis
<span class=EUR/USD" title="EUR/USD" width="600" height="600">
EUR/USD:

1.3162

Short-Term Trend: Uptrend

Outlook: Once again the 1.2870 Fibonacci level provided nice support last week as the low was registered on Monday at 1.2885. As you know, the low that was recorded in the previous week was 1.2875. So, you can see how these Fibonacci levels continue to act nicely as support or resistance levels. Now, sometimes the market touches these levels, other times it reverses right above (or below) there. In this case now, the 1.2870 level was not touched and as result the favored long strategy was not elected.

Now, with the break above 1.3130/40 on Friday, the EUR has confirmed that it has likely resumed its uptrend from the July 2012 low. If correct, higher prices toward 1.3520 and 1.3720 are expected until the end of the year and in early January.

On the downside, only a move below 1.3000 will negate this bullish view....

Strategy: Longs favored here with a stop below 1.3000.
GBPUSD
GBP/USD: 1.6171

Short-Term Trend: Sideways

Outlook: GBP/USD traded mostly sideways last week, but still managed to advance and closed at 1.6171. Now, the confidence in the presented wave count is extremely low, as this Neutral Triangle pattern is a rare pattern. But for now I have nothing better here for the structure of the wave (E).

So, I'll stick with this count for the time being. Right now the immediate pressure is on the upside, but most likely the move up will remain choppy and the upside potential is considered limited to 1.6380 level.

On the downside, a decline below 1.6000 will negate and will signal that wave (E) from the May 2012 low has likely entered already.

Strategy: Stand aside.
USDJPY
USD/JPY: 83.51

Short-Term Trend: Uptrend

Outlook: The bullish case here is woking just fine. The market reached the 83.80/84.16 key resistance zone last week and pulled back slightly from there. As long as the prices hold abv 83.00/82.80, the immedaite pressure remains on the upside, and we expect to see another attempt on the resistance level this week. A move above 84.16 should be considered a very bullish event as it will confirm a trend reversal on the weekly chart.

On the downside, as described already, the first support is at 82.80, then comes the important 81.65 level.

Strategy: Holding long from 81.30 is favored. Stop=81.60.

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