In Sweden, we expect (CPI) inflation to have come close to 0.4% m/m (-0.1% y/y) and the Riksbank's operational target CPIF-inflation (CPI with fixed mortgage rates) to have reached 0.5% m/m (0.6% y/y). On both measures, we are 0.1pp below the Riksbank's forecast. Note that even as we expect inflation to climb higher from here for the rest of the year it does not change our long-held view that the Riksbank is on hold for a very long time.
The Swedish Debt office will tap SEK1.75bn in both the 3.5% Jun '22 and the 2.5% May '25. The debt office tapped the same combination at the beginning of October and saw a very strong demand with bid-to-cover at 4.4x and 4.9x. This time we also look for good demand. Sweden still offers a pick-up to Germany and the supply picture for SGBs looks quite positive.
There are no major market movers in Norway this week, so this time we only look back at news from the previous week.
Norway's 2015 fiscal budget was a bit more expansionary than expected with the structural oil-adjusted deficit at NOK164bn in 2015, an increase of NOK21bn from 2014. This implies an expansionary effect of roughly 0.56% of mainland-GDP.
Based on the budget numbers we expect Norges Bank to purchase roughly NOK160m per day in 2015 to plug the non oil-adjusted budget deficit.
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