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Robust China Housing To Keep Property Curbs In Place

Published 11/19/2012, 06:22 AM
Updated 01/01/2017, 02:20 AM
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Yen decline pulls Nikkei225 higher following more anti-deflation Abe comments

Economic Data

(CN) CHINA OCT NEW HOME PRICES M/M: FELL IN 17 OF 70 CITIES V 22 PRIOR; Y/Y: FELL IN 56 OF 70 CITIES V 55 PRIOR

(TH) THAILAND Q3 GDP Q/Q: +1.2% V -0.3%E; Y/Y: 3.0% V 3.0%E

(JP) JAPAN SEPT FINAL LEADING INDEX CI: 91.6 V 91.7 PRIOR; COINCIDENT INDEX CI: 91.5 V 91.2 PRIOR

(UK) RIGHTMOVE NOV HOUSE PRICES M/M: -2.6% V +3.5% PRIOR (largest decline since Dec 2011); Y/Y: 2.0% V 1.5% PRIOR

Markets Snapshot (as of 05:15GMT)
Nikkei225 +1.7%

S&P/ASX +0.6%

Kospi +1.2%

Shanghai Composite -0.3%

Hang Seng +0.7%

Dec S&P500 +0.3% at 1,363

Dec gold +0.5% at $1,722/oz

Jan Crude Oil +1.1% at $87.83/brl

Notes/Observations
Shanghai Composite is the biggest decliner, testing below key 2,000 level late in the day after October new home prices fell in just 17 cities vs 22 prior. Investors indicate the strength could keep housing sector curbs for an extended period and possibly lead to expansion of property tax trials.

Thailand posted much stronger than expected Q3 GDP on sequential basis. Thailand Stats office did however cut its 2012 GDP target to 5.5% from 5.5-6.0% and also lowered 2012 exports growth projections to 5.5% from 7.3%.

Japanese yen opened under pressure again after weekend press citing LDP party leader Abe noted he would seek to appoint someone who agrees with his more aggressive inflation target as the next BOJ governor and signalled the BOJ may buy construction bonds. Abe has previously called for inflation target to be raised from 1% to 2-3%. USD/JPY and AUD/JPY hit 6-month highs early on before paring gains.

Fixed Income/Commodities
(JP) Japan Iron and Steel Federation: Japan Oct Crude Steel Production y/y: -6.7%

(CN) China Oct coal imports rise +15% m/m and +11.6% y/y to 21.4M tons (first rise in 4 months) - financial press

(AU) Australia Newcastle weekly coal exports for week ended Nov 19th: -13.0% w/w

IEA: Global energy demand to grow by more than a third by 2035 amid rising demand from India and China - financial press

GLD: SPDR Gold Trust ETF daily holdings rise by 3.0 tons to 1,342.6 tons (record high) - update as of Nov 16th

SLV: iShares Silver Trust ETF daily holdings fall to 9,940 tons from 9,985 tons (lowest since Oct 25th) - update as of Nov 16th

Currencies
USD/CNY: (CN) China's CNY currency (yuan) again hits the upper limit of its daily 1.0% range on OTC market at 6.2345

USD/CNY: (CN) PBoC Gov Zhou: Next step in reforming FX system will focus on yuan convertibility; Biggest long-term risk to China is inflation - financial press.

Speakers/Political/In the Papers
(CN) China's exports and imports said to have declined significantly in Nov, following rebound in prior 2 months - Chinese Press

(CN) China Minister of Commerce Chen Deming will have to step down in March after not being selected to Communist Party Central Committee last week - US press

(CN) China Foreign Ministry spokesman: Optimistic that a free trade agreement between China, Japan, and South Korea can be reached

(AU) Australia property price decline bring back buyers - AFR

(KR) Bank of Korea (BOK): South Korea bankruptcies in Oct rose to 116 from 102 in Sept - Korean press

(IR) Iran Foreign Min Ali Akbar Salehi: Warns countries not to send weaponry to Syrian rebels - financial press

(EU) Financial press report citing an EU diplomat suggesting the extraordinary summit called for this week may fail

(GR) ECB's Asmussen: Greece will require aid beyond 2014, may not return to markets until 2015, 2016 - German press

Equities
Nintendo NTDOY: Launches new Wii U home console in US markets this weekend; First upgrade since 2006

Yokohama Rubber 5101.JP: To postpone planned expansion across Asia due to economic slowdown in China and Europe - Nikkei News

005380.KR: Hyundai/Kia global auto market share in rose to 8.6% as of Q3, record high - Korean press citing JP Power

TTM: Jaguar Land Rover-Chery JV to invest $1.75B in a new plant in China - financial press

GNC.AU: CEO: Looking to pursue growth strategy to build the company rather than look for a buyer - financial press

ANZ.AU: According to the monthly DBM Consultants Business Financial Services Monitor, ANZ is the least popular among Australia's top 4 banks - SMH

STO.AU: Announces significant gas discovery at Crown-1 exploration well in Browse Basin - financial press

ELD.AU: Reports FY12 loss A$60.6M v loss A$395M y/y, Rev A$2.23B, -4% y/y

BBG.AU: Americas unit president Paul Naude to stand aside ahead of possible leveraged buyout plan - financial press

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