Tuesday the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Composite Index dropped 6 points to -4 from last month's 2. Investing.com had forecast no change at 2. Because of the highly volatile nature of this index, we include a 3-month moving average to facilitate the identification of trends, now at 1.3, indicating expansion. The complete data series behind today's Richmond Fed manufacturing report (available here), which dates from November 1993.
Here is a snapshot of the complete Richmond Fed Manufacturing Composite series.
Here is the latest Richmond Fed manufacturing overview.
Fifth District manufacturing activity slowed in February, according to the most recent survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. Shipments and the volume of new orders decreased modestly this month. Manufacturing hiring continued to increase at a modest pace, while average wages grew mildly and the average workweek lengthened slightly. Prices of raw materials and finished goods rose at a slower pace this month, compared to January.
Despite the current soft conditions, manufacturers remained upbeat about future business conditions. Expectations were for solid growth in shipments and in new orders in the six months ahead. Additionally, firms looked for increased capacity utilization and anticipated rising backlogs. Producers looked for shorter vendor lead times.
Producers expected faster employment growth and moderate growth in wages during the next six months. Survey participants looked for modest growth in the average workweek. Looking ahead, manufacturers anticipated faster growth in prices paid and prices received. Link to Report
Here is a somewhat closer look at the index since the turn of the century.
Is today's Richmond composite a clue of what to expect in the next PMI composite? We'll find out when the next ISM Manufacturing survey is released (below).
Because of the high volatility of this series, we should take the data for any individual month with the proverbial grain of salt.
Let's compare all five Regional Manufacturing indicators. Here is a three-month moving average overlay of each since 2001 (for those with data).
Here is the same chart including the average of the five. Readers will notice the range in expansion and contraction between all regions - this averages out to approximately zero for the average, which is flat and neither expanding nor contracting.
Here are the remaining four monthly manufacturing indicators that we track:
Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (TMOS)
Kansas City Manufacturing Survey
Empire State Manufacturing Survey