RBNZ Interest Rates: High Impact Release

RBNZ Interest Rates decision will be another high impact release for the Kiwi, especially after the recent hawkish comments from Wheeler on potential intervention due to NZD’s excessive strength. RBNZ (Reserve Bank of New Zealand) will be releasing the decision today and it is widely expected that Governor Wheeler of RBNZ will announce no rate changes, but then of course no rate change is needed to move the NZD if Wheeler were to take a hawkish or dovish stance with the accompanied statement, so I’d recommend traders to pay close attention to the comments immediately after the rate decision.

4:00pm (NY Time) RBNZ Interest Rates Decision Forecast 2.50% Previous 2.50%
DEVIATION: 0.25% (BUY NZD 2.75% / SELL NZD 2.25%)


The Trade Plan
Current forecast from economists surveyed by Bloomberg agree that RBNZ is likely to leave the official rate at 2.5% during this meeting; however, in the unlikely event that Governor Wheeler surprises the market and hike/cut rates by 0.25%, we should see an immediate strong volatility in the NZD which is a great opportunity to spike trade NZD.

I’d recommend to use the Recommended Pairs from above as they are based on my CSM, which should provide the best combination of currency pairs to trade based on better/worse news… of course, you can also trade the default pair: NZD/USD.

Outlook Score
Outlook score is derived from market sentiment, focus, and economic indicators for the currency. It represents the long-term trend of the currency and its market perception. In short, a strong Outlook Score means more long-term demand for the currency, and a weak Outlook Score is the opposite.

Definition:
The OCR (Official Cash Rate or RBNZ Interest Rates) influences the price of borrowing money in New Zealand and provides the Reserve Bank with a means of influencing the level of economic activity and inflation. An OCR is a fairly conventional tool by international standards.

NZ R/BNZ Interest Rates March 13, 2013 Currency News