Pre-Open Market Analysis
Wednesday was a huge bull-trend day that broke far above the all-time high. While it was climactic, the odds are against a strong bear day today. Yet, because of the consecutive buy climaxes, the odds are that there will be at least a couple of hours of sideways to down trading. Furthermore, it typically begins by the end of the 2nd hour.
Since yesterday was so strong, traders expect higher prices today. There is therefore a 50% chance of follow-through buying within the 1st 2 hours. Yet, there is only a 25% chance of another strong bull trend day.
Overnight Emini Globex
The Emini is up 1 point in the Globex session. In addition, it was in a small range overnight. There is still a 50% chance of follow-through buying in the 1st hour or two. Yet, there is also a 75% chance of at least a couple hours of sideways trading today.
While a strong bear trend is possible, it is not likely without first a trading range. The bears will usually need either a major trend reversal or a wedge top before they can convert a strong bull trend into a bear trend.