- Retail Sales (MoM) (GB, 09:30 GMT)
- Wholesale Sales (MoM) (CAD, 13:30 GMT)
- Initial Jobless Claims (U.S, 13:30 GMT)
- Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index + Existing Home Sales (U.S, 15:00 GMT)
According Bloomberg News, sales of previously owned U.S. homes probably rose in June; a report may show today, a sign the recent pickup in demand will be sustained. Purchases climbed 1.5 percent last month to a 4.62 million annual rate, matching April as the fastest since January, according to the median forecast of 76 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Jobless claims increased last week, another report may show.
Australian businesses grew less optimistic about near-term prospects, signaling a slowdown in the fastest-growing developed economy that economists predict will force the central bank to cut interest rates again. The business conditions index for the next three months dropped to 5, the lowest reading since the second quarter of 2009, National Australia Bank Ltd. (NAB) said in a survey released today.
U.K. unemployment fell to a nine-month low in the quarter through May as the London Olympics helped to create jobs, underlining the resilience of the labor market in the face of a recession and Europe’s debt crisis. The jobless rate based on International Labor Organization methods fell to 8.1 percent from 8.2 percent in the period through April, the Office for National Statistics said yesterday.
EUR/USD: The EUR/USD was trading slightly higher at 1.22854 at the time of writing ahead of EU current account at 09:00 GMT and sovereign debt auctions in France at 9:50GMT and Spain around 09:50 – 10:50 GMT. The pair is likely to fluctuate within the resistance level of 1.23360 and the support level of 1.22147 on the European session. More volatility are expected later on the American session, where the U.S will release its initial Jobless claims data, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index and Existing Home Sales data, the key risk events for the pair. Positive data from U.S might drag the EUR/USD down to hover around the key level of 1.22000. However, if data come below economists’ expectations the pair might increase to test the resistance level of 1.23360. Investors should adopt a wait and see strategy on the pair today. The support level is at 1.22147.
USD/JPY: The USD/JPY was trading lower at 78.522 at the time of writing as investors sold the greenback despite strong housing data out of the U.S. The pair is likely to continue is decreasing trend to hover around the 23.6% Fibonacci level (78.277) of the last falling wave as concern Europe’s leaders will be slow to implement measures to stem the region’s debt crisis supported demand for Japan’s currency as a haven. However, investors should remain prudent and closely monitor the key risk events for the pair; the initial Jobless claims data, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index and Existing Home Sales data, which will be released in the U.S later during the day to get more visibility on the trend of the USD/JPY. The resistance level is at 78.816 and the support level is at 78.381.
Oil (WTI): Oil was trading higher at 90.500 at the time of writing after U.S. housing starts surprised on the upside, reaching their highest level in nearly four years. The commodity is likely to continue its increasing trend to test the resistance level of 91.754 after U.S. gasoline supplies unexpectedly shrank, signaling fuel demand may increase amid an economic recovery. Investors should remain prudent as there might be some profit taking and market corrections intra trade. Moreover, investors should focus on the important economic data which will be released in the U.S today, to get more visibility on the direction of the commodity. The support level is at 88.478.
Dow: U.S. stocks rose for a second day after companies from Intel Corp. (INTC) to Honeywell (HON) International Inc. reported profit that beat estimates and housing starts increased to the fastest rate in almost four years. The Dow was trading at 12971.2 at the time of writing and the index is likely to fluctuate within the resistance level of 12971.2 and the support level of 12865.6 ahead of some key economic data in the U.S later in the day. Investors should remain prudent as there might be some profit taking and market corrections intra trade following the huge gains registered in the last two days. Positive news from the U.S might push the Dow further up to the key level of 13000.00.