Palladium prices climbed to their highest level since August 2011, but the reason for the rally is purely supply side rather than due to an increase in demand. Friday saw miners from South Africa going on strike, halting short-term production capability and piling on further bullish pressure on top of the already strained global supply chain, due to the Russian/Ukraine crisis which may restrict exports of the precious metal out of Russia. With both South Africa and Russia accounting for more than 80% of the world's palladium production, it is no wonder that prices are currently highly elevated.
Weekly Chart
So what does this all mean for the future? To be fair, we have not seen any significant sanctions enacted toward Russia by the rest of the world, and there haven't really been any serious military conflicts that have jeopardized mining activities in Russia. On the issue of South African strikes, it should also be noted that these strikes have been happening off and on since early January 2014 which—significantly— was the onset of the current rally, so it is unlikely that bullish follow-through above resistance can actually be of much consequence based on these on-again/off-again strikes that obviously have not really impaired production significantly.
Things are not looking all that promising on the demand front either. First, the need for precious metals has fallen after an earlier rate hike expectation had been instilled in the market following Janet Yellen's speech last week. Second, demand for precious metals for industrial purposes is expected to fall after yesterday's disappointing Manufacturing PMI numbers from Germany, China and the US. As such, the outlook for palladium is not bullish even though we are on the verge of a bullish breakout.
From a technical perspective, it should be noted that Stochastic readings are heavily overbought and have already started to push lower, looking likely to cross the Signal line and initiate a bearish cycle signal if the stoch curve continues further lower. The Doji candlestick that is in play right now also suggests that follow-through from the bullish breakout is iffy, and we should not be surprised if prices fail to climb higher and even start to reverse again.