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Oversupply Risks Persist For Oil And Natural Gas

By Antonio FerlitoMarket OverviewSep 29, 2022 08:50AM ET
www.investing.com/analysis/oversupply-risks-persist-for-oil-and-natural-gas-200630457
Oversupply Risks Persist For Oil And Natural Gas
By Antonio Ferlito   |  Sep 29, 2022 08:50AM ET
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DE40
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The benchmark of the US stock exchange is back in the Bear territory, having lost more than 20% from the highs reached at the beginning of the year.

More and more indications indicate the beginning of a global recession.

Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) has decided to abandon the plan to increase the production of the iPhone, as the demand is not climbing as it was thought a few months ago.

An industrial source told the agency that the suppliers of iPhone14 components were invited to proceed according to the usual directions, setting aside the stresses on increasing production capacity at the beginning of the year.

From the statements released in the last few hours by some members of the United States central bank board, there are no signs of deviation from the line of extreme rigor on inflation.

In her latest speech at an event held at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cleveland Federal Reserve Chair Loretta Mester said that, in this context, it is best to abandon caution and act aggressively to 'prevent the worst.'.

Hot Stocks And Instruments

Enel (BIT:ENEI): The stock is in free fall, with prices at the lows of 2017.

In my previous articles, I advised against investing in this sector due to the policy of taxation of maxi profits, an approach proposed by the EU as early as August and followed by the Draghi government.

This fiscal policy is bad for companies in the sector, as it constitutes a big question mark about profitability. This is combined with Enel's main problem, which is the high debt.

According to my model, the title is worth € 3.85, a value ​​we will see shortly.

DAX: There is terrible news from the macro data, with the country in line to be the first to enter a recession. As anticipated in previous articles, the 12,000 points target was hit yesterday.

FTSE MIB: Bad news for Italy. The business confidence index decreased for the third consecutive month, reaching the lowest value since April 2021, a trend 'determined by the negative evolution of confidence in manufacturing, in services (in both sectors, the index is down for the third consecutive month and reaches a low, respectively, from February 2021 and January 2022) and in the retail sector '.

I expect 20,000 points shortly.

Natural Gas: The commercial premium deriving from the lack of Russian gas is now over. The market has already discounted it.

Therefore, an enormous oversupply could arise in the next few years with producers who have returned to gas production after plant shutdowns due to the pandemic.

I expect prices in the 6,000 area shortly.

Bitcoin: The European Central Bank is studying ways to settle transactions between banks on a blockchain to keep control of the money even as lenders switch to distributed digital ledgers.

In reality, this is not good news for Bitcoin, as they are working on setting up a digital ledger based on using cryptographic tokens linked to a conventional currency.

Moreover, Bitcoin has not been named. The response project, the so-called digital Euro, positions itself precisely against Bitcoin.

With these conditions, it makes sense to invest in Bitcoin only from a speculative point of view. On Bitcoin, I expect $15,000 shortly.

Oil: Iran does not rule out the possibility of a meeting on the sidelines of the United Nations Annual General Assembly in New York to relaunch the 2015 nuclear deal with world powers.

This was stated by the spokesman of the Foreign Ministry, Nasser Kanaani. He said, 

"Ali Bagheri Kani, the chief nuclear negotiator, will be present at the General Assembly as part of the delegation, but there is no specific plan to discuss the nuclear deal. However, I do not rule out the possibility of talks concerning the agreement,"

Oil prices are in free fall and begin to discount a global recession that will lead to a collapse in oil demand. Furthermore, a possible agreement with Iran will lead to an oversupply of oil.

We are close to the $ 75 target given in my previous articles.

Telecom Italia (BIT:TLIT): The stock is holding up after the rises at the beginning of the week, thus rising from the historic lows reached in the last week.

The political affirmation of the Fratelli d’Italia in the recent elections contributes to supporting the stock.

Giorgia Meloni's party would favor a plan to delist the company and sell the network to CDP to create a single national infrastructure.

The stock could be purchased only for speculative purposes. The critical point is always the same: the company has insufficient profitability and very high debt.

According to my model, the stock is worth 0.16. Moreover, we must be cautious to promptly liquidate the stock before any delisting to avoid very long procedures to collect the equivalent value.

Oversupply Risks Persist For Oil And Natural Gas
 

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Oversupply Risks Persist For Oil And Natural Gas

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Comments (3)
Jack Sailor
Jack Sailor Oct 09, 2022 6:05PM ET
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lol you have to be kidding.. flat out wrong
Matias Riesco Vicuña
Matias Riesco Vicuña Oct 02, 2022 7:31PM ET
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hahahaha all wrong about oil
Toptrade Crude
Toptrade Crude Sep 29, 2022 2:49PM ET
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@antino ,when we get 75 ? Is it possible tomorrow
 
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