A rally in crude prices, seen before the OPEC output cut decision, has left much scope for creating more and more “ifs” and “buts”. Majority seems to be on the side that nothing specific will be concluded during the OPEC Meet on 30th November 2016. Though, crude prices will decide their final course of directional move only after the final outcome of OPEC output cut.
There may be three possible scenarios arise among these “ifs” and “buts”:
1. If a rally in crude prices achieved news heights much before the OPEC Meeting, then the movement height and depth of crude price may be between $ 66.22, but stiff resistance may be faced at $72.71 and finally at $ 87.75.
2. If the output cut decision is postponed for a near future date or no specific decision is derived , then all hope driven rally will equally see a great reversal, which can hardly be expected by someone. Crude prices may see the lowest bottom around $ 22.
3. If things went otherwise and all hopes of an output cut are crushed due to non-participation of major oil producers or their lack of cooperation in the endeavour of output cut, then crude prices may see the first bottom at $29.65 before fetching final support at $26.11.
Let's for the best. If everything moves positively and OPEC's output cut is properly defined on 30th November 2016, crude prices will touch the strong supportive price level of $46 first before scaling towards new heights. But quantum of greed and fear will overpower the sentiments of the traders while creating new positions, due to high volatility in crude prices, till the OPEC output cut final outcome.